It's been quite an eventful seven days since I last wrote. French news magazine, Jeune Afrique, 'broke' the worst kept political secret; President Kagame would run for President next year under the RPF-Inkotanyi banner. It's the 'worst kept secret' because everyone who was in the room during the 16th RPF Congress (on April 2) knew that, by voting for him to return as party chairman, he'd also run as the party's presidential candidate in 2024.
In fact, during his acceptance speech that day, he challenged party members to think deeply about what the future would hold for both the party, and the country, in the coming years beyond the next presidential term. What I took from his speech was that we, as RPF party members (and Rwandan citizens), had to prepare for life beyond the next five-year presidential term. However, what we could take for granted was that he would be RPF's candidate.
So, imagine my bemusement as I read headlines screaming 'Rwanda President Kagame says he will run for fourth term'. I mean, wasn't that a given when he was nominated earlier this year by hundreds of RPF cadres in Rusororo? Of course, the 'news' brought all the Rwanda watchers, and their obvious rhetoric, out of the woodwork. Like an evil incarnation of the superhero movie franchise, The Avengers, notable Rwanda (and RPF)-phobes Ken Roth, Michela Wrong, and others of similar ilk, assembled, ranting and raving. What I found most comforting with their online diatribes was the fact that they, and their bevy of Twitter fanatics, couldn't articulate any reason for their opposition beyond the 'dictator' angle. They couldn't find fault with President Kagame's economic stewardship. Nor could they attack his performance vis-à-vis health, security and social protection outcomes.
In New York, the Congolese president, Felix Tshisekedi, used the UN General Assembly pulpit, in my opinion, to drag his country into an even deeper hole than it was in previously. He announced three things; one, the presidential elections would definitely happen in December. Secondly, the UN mission in DR Congo, MONUSCO, would have to leave Congolese territory by December 2023 (instead of 2024 as it seemed to have been agreed). Thirdly, never would his government dialogue with the M23 rebels.
There is a saying that goes, 'when you find yourself in a hole, the very thing you must do is stop digging'. What Tshisekedi is doing is, instead of halting the digging, he's ordering an excavator to help him dig even faster. What I personally don't understand is why he's still being coddled so much. I understand that everyone wants Congolese natural resources, but resources can only be properly (with the emphasis on 'properly') exploited when there is a semblance of stability. What Tshisekedi is doing is lighting a match in an already volatile situation.
The Hebrew prophet Hosea must have had DR Congo's leadership in mind when he wrote, 'for they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind'. By refusing to even contemplate dialoguing with his fellow citizens (citizens who, mind you, have captured a not insignificant amount of territory), who simply want their rights to exist protected by the DR Congo state, he's put all the regional peace efforts (whether led by ex-Kenyan Head of State, Uhuru Kenyatta or Angolan President, Joao Lourenco) in the proverbial wastebasket. He's decided that war will be his only option out of this impasse.
The thing is, the Congolese war machine is good at the wrong things.
They are good at killing their own people (like how Tshisekedi's personal guard unit shot and killed over 50 people in Goma in broad daylight on August 20), they are good at looting (the very same presidential guards were filmed looting musical equipment as well as goats after killing all those people) and they are good at raping the women they are supposed to protect (as was highlighted by a May 2023 report by Doctors without Borders).
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The one thing that they aren't very good at is militarily defeating a rebel group. That is why they have employed Romanian mercenaries, armed and funded the genocidal FDLR militia, and given weapons to every Tom, Dick and Kongolo with a semblance of a fighting spirit to become cannon fodder.
I honestly believe that Tshisekedi thinks that the war he'll launch will be like a stroll in the park; that he'll snap his fingers and his generals will deliver him a victory that will put him in an unassailable position come the December elections. What he is actually doing is playing Russian Roulette with people's lives, both in his country and the region. I would like to remind him the last time a foolish war was launched by an overconfident president in Kinshasa, the fighting ended on his doorstep.
The writer is a socio-political commentator.
