The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) represents a critical milestone in the development of the Horn of Africa and has the potential to unlock immense benefits for sustainable development and regional cooperation. Construction of the dam stems from Ethiopia's desire to harness its extensive water resources and drive economic growth through hydropower generation. Started in 2011, the project was conceived as a catalyst on Ethiopia's path to becoming a regional powerhouse and a key player in the sub-region's economic integration.
The GERD project is a critical step in Ethiopia's efforts to achieve economic independence. By harnessing the Abbay's immense hydropower potential, the country aims to eliminate its energy deficit and pave the way for industrialization and electrification. In addition, the export of surplus electricity to neighboring countries is expected to boost economic growth and promote regional integration.
Although the realization of the GERD occurred in the present generation, Ethiopians have been dreaming of utilizing the Abbay for several decades. In fact, the first feasibility study on the construction of a dam on the Abbay was done in 1964 during the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie, about half a century before the dam construction began.
Now, with the construction of the GERD nearing completion, Ethiopians have begun enjoying the bounty of the Abbay, like the Sudanese and the Egyptians, with the partial commencement of power generation. Ethiopians have practically demonstrated the possibility of utilizing the Abbay River without causing harm to the interests of the downstream countries.
The GERD has been filled four times under procedures in line with the Declaration of Principles signed by the tripartite states in 2015. Fortunately, all four years were blessed with heavy rains, and the filling was conducted at the season when the rainfall was at its peak. Even the Ethiopian authorities did the last round of filling in the later days of the rainy season as proof of their mindfulness of the concerns of their downstream states and the principle of good neighborliness.
Ethiopia is optimistic and genuinely committed to the successful outcome of the ongoing tripartite negotiation that has been restarted after a long hiatus. It has only been just over two and a half months since the Ethiopian and Egyptian leaders jointly declared their commitment to settle the GERD dispute with a negotiated agreement in four months. Therefore, it is too soon to declare the negotiation a failure, as some media outlets have tried to portray it.
The international media has intentionally or ignorantly skipped the fact that the bottleneck on the path to a successful end to the negotiation is Egypt's fixation on obsolete colonial treaties from which it derives the so-called 'historical rights.' If the negotiation is to move ahead, Egypt must realize that the days when the Abbay served only Egypt and Sudan have gone, and agree to the formulation of a new equitable water-sharing arrangement. Thus, the compromise to bring a breakthrough in the GERD negotiation is expected from the Egyptians, not Ethiopians.
Robin Scher, a writer based in South Africa recently wrote: "A good example where a water-sharing agreement helped avoid conflict can be found in Southern Africa. In 2000, with tensions rising over shared resources, an agreement was reached between Lesotho, South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia that helped avoid further issues."
Political and geopolitical dynamics influence the GERD negotiation process, with external actors and regional organizations playing significant roles. Over the years, third parties have been involved as mediators, observers, facilitators etc to address the challenges surrounding the GERD negotiation. Diplomatic efforts, facilitated by regional organizations and international mediators, have sought to bridge gaps, explore compromise, and build trust among the parties involved.
External actors, such as the United States, the European Union, and countries in the Gulf region with vested interests in the Horn, have shown varying levels of involvement in the GERD negotiation. Sadly, geopolitical considerations, economic interests, and historic alliances have made their engagement and influence on the negotiation dynamics biased and unacceptable.
Let us see some instances. The Arab League has made several unfair statements on the GERD on various occasions. We won't forget the immense diplomatic pressure the Trump administration exerted on Ethiopia to sign a GERD deal it cooked up with an Egyptian recipe. Besides, there was shuttle diplomacy by the US officials at times when the GERD dispute was at fever pitch. They were roving around Jeddah, Cairo, Ankara, and Abu Dhabi etc.
No doubt, similar pressures of soft power and undercover diplomatic wooing are still active to seduce Ethiopia into signing a deal with the GERD that potentially compromises its sovereign power to utilize and develop its natural resources without causing harm to its neighbors. It is quite commendable on the part of the Ethiopian government to stay consistently open and ready to reach an equitable deal and defy all pressures against it to sign unfair and unjust deals. The Ethiopians have remained loyal to their mantra: better to have no deal than a bad deal.
The GERD has the potential to bring about significant socio-economic impacts and benefits for all parties involved. Assessing the potential economic benefits for all parties involved, the GERD's successful completion and operation promise immense economic benefits. For Ethiopia, it ensures sustainable energy supply, attracts foreign investment and drives economic growth. For downstream countries, such as Egypt and Sudan, access to reliable electricity and the potential for increased trade, investment agricultural productivity, as well as reduced risk of floods are substantial benefits.
Identifying areas of common interest and mutual benefit is crucial in building a foundation for cooperation. By focusing on shared aspirations for sustainable development, energy security, and economic growth, the three states involved in the GERD dispute can foster an environment of collaboration and ultimately find a mutually acceptable resolution.
The GERD negotiation is not only a challenge but also presents an opportunity for economic cooperation and regional integration, fostering a spirit of collaboration among all Nile Basin countries. The GERD can serve as a catalyst for collaborative projects and infrastructure development in the region. Enhanced cooperation on energy trade, transportation, and trade corridors can unlock the economic potential of neighboring countries, stimulate regional integration, and contribute to mutual prosperity.
Of course that is not easy to achieve. It requires respecting the rights of others, willingness to compromise, and vision of shared prosperity. Establishing trust and fostering cooperation among the riparian countries present notable challenges. Historical disputes, differing priorities, and perceptions of power imbalances must be overcome through sustained dialogue, confidence-building measures, and a commitment to shared outcomes.
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Applying the lessons learned from successful trans-boundary river agreements is essential to peacefully navigate the complexities of the GERD negotiation. By incorporating principles of equitable allocation, shared benefits, and dispute resolution mechanisms, the parties involved can forge a path towards cooperation, understanding, and sustainable development.
The GERD negotiation presents an array of future scenarios and potential outcomes, each with unique effects on the region's sustainable development. Multiple scenarios can unfold depending on the outcomes of the negotiation process. These scenarios range from a comprehensive and mutually beneficial agreement that fosters regional cooperation to heightened tensions and conflict. Thorough examination of these scenarios helps to anticipate potential effects and formulate informed policies.
By learning from past water disputes, fostering transparent communication, and embracing cooperative approaches, the GERD negotiation holds the promise of promoting sustainable development, fostering regional cooperation, and ensuring a brighter future for all involved parties. We do hope that the Egyptians would come to their senses and respect Ethiopia's sovereign rights to develop its natural resources and recognize its entitlement to share the bounty of the Abbay River. We do hope the GERD negotiation would reach a breakthrough by the end of this year.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
