With the electoral countdown to the 2026 elections well underway and the roadmap unveiled, concerns are mounting about the state of a fragmented opposition.
Disputes and fractures within key opposition parties, including the FDC, UPC, and DP, alongside multiple court battles, have raised doubts about the unity of the opposition and its ability to mount a strong challenge.
Researchers have sounded alarm bells, suggesting that the infighting among opposition political parties could pave the way for the NRM government to enjoy a smooth ride in the upcoming elections.
However, this prognosis is far from unanimous, as some analysts and politicians argue that the desire for change still burns brightly among the population, ensuring that the NRM will face a robust challenge.
Professor Gerald Karyeija and historian Dr. John Paul Kasujja are among those who share concerns about the opposition's disarray.
They predict an influx of crossovers from different political parties to the ruling NRM, with many others opting to run as independent candidates.
"In the current climate, we can expect numerous defections to the NRM and a significant number of independent candidates," says Prof. Karyeija.
Dr. Kasujja concurs.
"The opposition's internal divisions are certainly a concern. Unity is essential for a formidable challenge, but it's become increasingly elusive," he says.
In response, Joel Ssenyonyi and Dr. Patrick Wakida emphasize the enduring fever for change among Ugandans.
They argue that despite the shifts in political dynamics, the same population with longstanding grievances remains, ensuring that the NRM will not have an easy victory.
"Ugandans who have longed for change are still here, with the same yearning for a better future," notes Ssenyonyi.
Dr. Wakida says, "The desire for change transcends the opposition's internal disputes. The population's demands are unwavering."
The opposition has made various attempts to form coalitions and present unified candidates, particularly for parliamentary seats.
However, these efforts have faced challenges due to the proliferation of factions within the opposition, making true unity an elusive goal.
As the nation eagerly awaits the 2026 general elections, the critical question is whether the divided opposition and its fragmented parties can rally and present a cohesive challenge to the long-standing NRM government.
