South Africa: Dismal September Mining and Manufacturing Data Bode Ill for SA's Third-Quarter GDP

Diamonds led the fall in mining production, with a plunge in output of 61.4% year on year in September. This comes against the backdrop of a global slump in prices and demand.

Mining production fell by 1.9% year on year in September, while manufacturing output dropped by a worse than expected 4.3%. It all adds up to a potential contraction in South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter (Q3).

Diamonds led the fall in mining production with a plunge in output of 61.4% year-on-year in September. This comes against the backdrop of a global slump in prices and demand. De Beers said on Wednesday that it had sold $80-million of rough diamonds during its latest sales cycle in October compared to $454-million in the same period last year.

Overall, Stats SA said mining production fell by 1.9% year on year in September, and by 1.6% in the three months to the end of September. This means it will be a drag on the quarter-on-quarter GDP number for Q3, which will be released in December.

The manufacturing data were grimmer and will also detract from Q3 GDP, signalling a possible contraction as power outages, Transnet's woes, high interest rates and other factors such as crime continue to rob the economy of growth potential.

Manufacturing output slumped by 4.3% year on year in September -- a bigger contraction than the fall...

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