Chad is set to vote on a contentious constitutional referendum on Sunday that is widely seen as a move to consolidate power by transitional leader Mahamat Deby.
Some 8 million registered voters head to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots on whether Chad should adopt a new constitution.
The "yes" vote is endorsed by a broad alliance of parties, including the military-led transitional government headed by General Mahamat Deby, the former ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) and the main opposition UNDR party of Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo.
During the 20 days of campaigning, the "yes" camp has held large meetings throughout the vast Sahelian country, including a massive kick-off event in the capital N'Djamena.
"The 'yes' camp have a strong hold on all the public resources and hold political power in terms of mobilizing people," Remadji Hoinathy, a Chad-based senior researcher for the Institute for Security Studies, an African think tank, told DW.
"It's also the camp that controls the media."
In contrast, the "no" vote, which includes opposition parties and some civil society organizations, is short on financing and faces intimidation from security forces who have broken up rallies and seized fliers.
Several opposition parties have called for a boycott of the referendum.
The lead-up to the vote has also been marred by a lack of transparency around voting registration and auditing.
Because of these factors, many analysts believe the "yes" vote will win.
"The 'yes' vote actually have all the means, including illegal means, to win," Hoinathy explained. "But if the 'yes' wins, that would not mean that there had been a free referendum."
Washington-based Africa security expert Cameron Hudson put it more bluntly: "The referendum's outcome is already a foregone conclusion," he told DW.
No referendum on the federal system
Those opposed to the new constitution are concerned that the referendum ignores the unresolved question of whether the desperately impoverished nation should become a federal state or stay centrally governed.
Chad has had a central, or unitary, government since gaining independence from France in 1960. This central structure is enshrined in the proposed constitution.
"No" campaigners, however, favor a transition to a federal state, arguing that a central government has failed to develop Chad, the second poorest nation in the world.
Those who defend staying with the central state argue that federalism would further fragment the country, whose regions are marked by strong religious, ethnic and tribal divisions.
Referendum part of roadmap to civilian rule
The military junta led Mahamat Deby, who assumed power in April 2021 following the death of his father President Idriss Deby, set out a roadmap to transition back to civilian rule.
One of the three pillars of this transition was an inclusive national dialogue. This was set up to tackle issues such as constitutional reform and other political topics dividing the country.
Held from April to October 2022, the national dialogue recommended first holding a referendum to settle the debate on which form the state should take -- either a federal or central system -- and then draft a new constitution based on the outcome.
But Sunday's referendum fails to ask Chadians which from of government they would prefer.
Federation a popular idea
In a survey published at the beginning of the year by the Chadian Journalist Reporters Network, more than 2 out of 3 Chadians, or 71%, were in favor of moving to a federal system.
In regional dialogues that preceded the national dialogue, 10 out of 23 provinces wanted to opt for federalism, according to political expert Hoinathy.
Africa's fifth biggest nation by area, Chad is home to some 200 ethnic groups. The semi-desert region in the north is populated primarily by nomadic and semi-nomadic Muslims, whereas semi-tropical southern Chad is predominantly Christian and animist with large-scale farming.
"Most of Chad's regions are demanding a greater degree of federalism, which gives more local authority and autonomy to the various groups that dominate in those areas like you have in Nigeria, for example," said Hudson, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Africa, a Washington-based think tank.
The regions see the federal system working reasonably well in Nigeria, Chad's neighbor to the south, and now they're wanting to adopt the same system, Hudson told DW.
Some of those lobbying for the central system accuse the federalists of wanting to completely dissolve Chad as a country. But Chad expert Helga Dickow, a political scientist at Germany's University of Freiburg, doesn't believe this is true.
"They just want to have their fair share in politics and resources. They don't want it to be dominated by a small ethnic group," she said, referring to the Zaghawa, a minority ethnic group from the country's northeast.
The Zaghawa have dominated Chad's politics and armed forces since Idriss Deby, a member of the Zaghawa clan, took power in a coup in 1990 and ruled until his death on the battlefield in 2021.
Consolidation of power
Transitional president Mahamat Deby is consolidating his grip on power, most analysts say, by avoiding a referendum on federalism and enshrining a unitary government in the constitution.
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"If you are a dictator," said Hudson, who formerly worked for the CIA and US state department, "the federal system doesn't really serve your interests particularly well. ... It would be a devolution of power and that's something that [the transitional government is] resisting.
"That's why the government has been pushing for the unitary state."
Chad expert Dickow, who spent two months conducting research in the country earlier this year, shares a similar opinion.
"It's clear that the transitional government aims to guard the power in its hand by [keeping the central state]," she said. A central system also benefits the security forces by allowing them to keep control, she added.
On the death of Idriss Deby, Chad's military government promised a transition to democracy that included the national dialogue, constitutional reform and elections by October 2022.
The results of the national dialogue were widely seen as disappointing, the referendum is turning out contentious and elections are delayed by two years until October 2024.
"Unfortunately, there is the impression that this transition is not really a transition to anything new," said Hoinathy. "We are seeing the reification of the Deby system, maybe in a worse form to come."
Edited by: Ineke Mules
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