South Africa: Roger Jardine Has a Mountain to Climb

14 December 2023

There is a lot that is different and potentially exciting about the Change Starts Now political movement of outgoing FirstRand chairperson Roger Jardine.

He is building a human rights-based political party that seeks to ensure people are not denied the most basic human rights, like access to clean water, decent low-cost housing and the dignity of earning a living.

If you go through the founding principles of Jardine's movement, you can only feel sorry that such a party is being launched so late, with the elections just six months away.

This is no time to launch anything new. It is perhaps the time for like-minded people to join forces and build a solid party that can potentially get 10% to 20% of the vote.

"To join an existing party is to buy into an existing platform," Jardine told Daily Maverick.

He says he realises there is a lot of work still to be done. I beg to differ. He has no idea how much work he will have to do just to get 5% of the vote.

Contesting in what is billed as the most difficult election since 1994, if Jardine gets anywhere close to 5% of the vote, I'll eat my Irish newsboy hat.

Even with an alleged billion rand war chest, which he says is a lie spread by political opponents, the road ahead will not be easy.

Yes, middle-class voters know who Jardine is and those who don't will know him soon enough and might embrace him based on his values.

But that is a very small pool. The likes of ActionsSA, BuildOneSA, Rise Mzansi, the EFF and the DA are all gunning for the black middle class that is apparently walking away from the ANC.

The rest of the over 12 million voters that have kept the ANC in power despite potholes, unemployment, load shedding, etc. are not in leafy suburbs in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban.

In my village town of KwaBhaca, no one gives a hoot about Roger Jardine.

Based on the 2019 election, to get 5% of the national share of the vote, Jardine will need one million votes.

That translates to about 20 seats in the National Assembly. It would be a massive achievement for a party that will be around seven months old on election day.

This is not to say it cannot be done. Herman Mashaba, the founder of ActionSA, launched his party in August 2020 and won 548,000 votes in the fiercely contested 2021 municipal elections.

But that was the achievement of a former mayor of Johannesburg who rescued the city from years of poor governance. He had built a pact with various communities in Gauteng and earned their respect for being forthright.

Roger Jardine has these qualities and more, but he is alone -- and to the ordinary voter out there: who the hell is Roger Jardine?

 

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