Uganda has experienced heavy and longer rains since September 2023. Even though forecasts indicate dry and sunny conditions in early 2024, the Uganda National Meteorological Authority predicts that the persistence of current El Niño conditions will influence rainfall distribution.
El Niño refers to a climate pattern of unusual warming of surface that causes extreme weather events such as drought, prolonged heavy rains, sometimes resulting into destructive flash floods.
The country is still experiencing a spillover of extreme weather events due to El Niño occurrences of last season, a phenomenon which is concerning to most Ugandans, especially farmers. This is because of its effect on agriculture and other related sectors such as roads, education and health.
Agriculture is essential to local food supply and nutrition security. It also provides livelihoods and incomes for about 80 per cent of Ugandans. Small-scale farmers, who account for the majority of Ugandan farmers, play a key role in the sector because of their contribution to the local food system.
In the recent past, the agricultural sector has experienced a decline in food production due to numerous challenges related to extreme climate events.
Besides infrastructure damage caused by the El Niño events, like destruction of property, displacement of families due to floods, flooding of roads, and destruction of bridges, above-normal rainfall poses challenges to the agriculture sector. It impacts agricultural production, post- harvest, transportation of produce, and consumption of products.
For example, floods destroy crops and reduce the availability of crop products, which leads to decreased nutrition. Mudslides erode soils, necessitating the application of fertilizers in the next seasons. This is a cost to farmers. In addition, there are post-harvest losses due to the challenges of drying in wetter weather conditions.
This certainly reduces the quantity and quality of the grains. Second season harvest usually begins mid-November till mid-January, and this collided with the end of last year's excessive rains. This affects post-harvest operations. For instance, it increases the length of the drying period of grains, such as maize which encourages the growth of molds and increases toxins that are harmful to the health of consumers.
Incidences of crop pests and diseases are most likely to increase due to excessive rainfall, and this increases farmers' cost of inputs; for instance, buying pesticides. Pest infestations also reduce crop yields. Also, floods wash away roads, which block and delay agricultural production's transportation.
The above challenges eventually increase costs and reduce farmers' earnings. Consumers, on the other hand, feel the pinch as commodity prices are most likely to increase. Uganda has for long relied on our food production prowess to curb inflation.
Despite the damages caused by the heavy rains to crops like beans and potatoes in the second season of 2023, the rains favoured the production of crops like maize. Even with the bumper harvest for maize, farmers decide to sell off their maize at low prices due to inadequate storage facilities.
Moreover, farmers incur high costs for inputs. For example, maize seed was scarce for second-season planting in September 2023 due to erratic rains in the previous season. Therefore, farmers can expect to receive low returns for their produce. On the contrary, the maize bumper harvest is advantageous for poultry and piggery farmers because they buy animal feeds at low prices.
Uganda can take advantage of the market provided by neighbouring countries like Kenya to sell her excess maize. Kenya's January to March 2024 weather forecasts indicate sunny and dry weather conditions for most parts of the country. This suggests that even though Kenya produces maize, crop yields will likely be below average due to the expected weather conditions.
Therefore, this presents a market opportunity for Uganda's maize. Considering the importance of the agriculture sector in Uganda, climate- resilient agricultural practices, such as growing crop varieties that are resistant to pests and diseases, can help mitigate the impact of El Niño events.
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Increasing storage facilities will help to reduce post-harvest losses. Support, including early warning systems, is necessary to reduce the impact of extreme weather events such as mudslides, storms and floods. Constructing climate-resilient infrastructure like transportation is essential.
Supporting farmers in developing cooperatives to access markets works as well. Implementing insurance schemes and offering credit is also beneficial to farmers. There is a need for farmers to diversify farming activities to include livestock production and value-addition initiatives.
The writer is a research associate at Economic Policy Research Centre, Makerere University
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