Uganda-USA relations are at their most trying moment in a long time. When Kampala enacted the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) in May 2023, the USA described it as a "shameful Act" and promised to review its relationship with us.
What has happened since shows that Washington was not bluffing. While Uganda has been defiant, with President Yoweri Museveni, in a speech in January 2024 at the 27th Conference of Speakers and Presiding Officers of the Commonwealth, urging the lawmakers to reject the evil tendencies of Western countries toward societies different from them, there is evidence that USA actions are starting to bite.
Some senior government officials have had their visas revoked or cancelled. The list of sanctioned Ugandans was expanded in December, with the USA claiming these additional individuals are responsible for "suppressing marginalised groups ..."
The World Bank, at the urging of the USA, announced in August 2023 that it would halt new loans to Uganda over this law. The key word here is "new" - financing for approved projects will continue.
The World Bank has diversified its portfolio in Uganda across education, gender, infrastructure, health, energy, agriculture and poverty reduction, estimating it to be $5.4 billion. On January 1, 2024, Kampala was officially struck off the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows African countries to export selected products to the USA duty-free.
In 2022, Uganda's estimated exports under the AGOA scheme were Shs 39.8 billion (slightly above $10 million) -- a relatively substantial amount for a small country. The US President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) has invested more than $3 billion in the fight against Aids in Uganda since 2004.
Millions of Ugandans now have access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV testing and have experienced a reduction in mother-to-child transmission rates, thanks to PEPFAR.
In general, the US invests approximately $1 billion in Uganda annually. All this support is under review. In addition, the USA Department of State has urged American tourists and investors to reconsider their travel and investment prospects in Uganda over the AHA. Several Ugandan students have also faced denial of access to USA universities due to the AHA.
Notwithstanding all this backlash from the USA, Kampala remains an important ally and strategic partner to the USA in the Great Lakes region and Africa. Uganda hosts approximately 1.5 million refugees from South Sudan (57 per cent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (32 per cent), Somalia (three per cent) and Burundi (three per cent).
Without such a partner in the region, a good number of these refugees would be seeking entry into the USA. Ugandan troops, under the auspices of AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), remain a strong force in Somalia, pursuing the Al-Shabab terrorists seeking to replace the Western-backed government.
Uganda has also been a negotiator of peace in the region, particularly between Sudan and South Sudan. Judging by the tone of the president, a repeal of the AHA is not an option now. However, there is need to sensitise the advocates of the LGBTQ community on the facts of the AHA.
Some people have gone as far as claiming that LGBTQ individuals will face arrest upon arrival in Uganda, but this is not true. A delegation led by the senior presidential advisor on Trade and Export, Odrek Rwabwogo, visited the USA in December to advocate against the removal of Uganda from the AGOA scheme.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Obviously, this was not successful. However, these negotiations should and will continue behind closed doors. A Biden win in the November election means the animosity towards Uganda will likely continue, which will cost the country dearly. However, it seems that the American people are dissatisfied with the way the Democratic Party is running the country.
Polls show that voters believe Trump will do a better job on several fronts: the economy, energy, border security, Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war, just to mention but a few.
A Trump presidency is likely to ignore whatever is going on in Africa and focus more on American issues. The Biden administration is still here until January 2025. No matter who wins, the USA remains an important player in Ugandans' lives. Our leaders should remember that.
The writer is a research fellow at EPRC, Makerere University.
