While maize harvests plummeted after Cyclone Freddy and El Niño, and look set to stay low, other crops have shown more resilience.
Farmers in Malawi are being encouraged to plant different varieties of crops as extreme weather makes agriculture more challenging. Dry conditions recently have led to plummeting yields of the national staple maize, which supplies around two-thirds of the country's calorie intake. Around 80% of Malawi's 20 million population depend on farming for their livelihoods and 90% of these farmers produce some maize.
Recent analysis by a team of local researchers found that the El Niño weather pattern negatively impacts maize production in the entirety of Malawi and that 60% of maize-growing areas are in the worst affected districts with typical drop in maize yields of 15-30%.
Although the 2023-24 El Niño pattern is gradually weakening, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) 2023 report estimated that 4.4 million people will be food insecure in the current season. Many communities are at the mercy of food aid as the government ramps up efforts to distribute maize.
Mike Chikwawa, 30, who grows maize in Mulanje District, southern Malawi, says the yields from his one-acre garden have been almost non-existent. He usually harvests almost 12 bags of produce but managed to produce less than one bag this season.
"I planted [maize] with the first rains late last year as always, but it stopped [growing] after the seeds had germinated," he says.
Chikwawa interplanted the maize with cassava, which he says came out unscathed and will see him through the year.
Takondwa Tobias, 24, similarly managed to salvage the season by growing alternative crops to maize. He avoided the popular staple due to high fertiliser prices and instead grew tomatoes.
"Although we also encountered fungal diseases, we were able to profit from the harvest," he says.
Researchers are encouraging more farmers in Malawi to diversify their produce in this way, especially as climate change leads to more frequent and extreme unstable conditions.
"Last year we had Cyclone Freddy, this year we have El Niño," says Tamani Nkhono-Mvula, an agricultural expert. "We may not know what will happen next year."
He suggests that farmers need to rethink what they plant going forwards given that maize is "climate-sensitive" and requires a "continued supply of water". "We can go to other crops that are resistant [to drought], but we can also invest in research on maize varieties which are climate tolerant," he says.
He calls on local and international organisations that support farmers to give them access to cassava cuttings and seeds for hardier plants. With depleted incomes, he says, they may struggle to buy these inputs otherwise.
As well as diversifying crops, Nkhono-Mvula suggests that policies are needed to help Malawi's agriculture diversify in terms production and irrigation systems. Around 90% of agriculture in the country is rainfed and just 4% irrigated.
"The government needs to go into discussion with companies that have irrigation infrastructures like Illovo Sugar Malawi and Salima Sugar Company so that we can plant as much as possible," he says. "That will go a long way to alleviate the food crisis that is definitely coming this year. If we plant more than once with irrigation, we may lessen the challenges."
In the shorter term, researchers suggest that the impacts of low maize yields can be reduced through better trade practices. Following poor harvests in 2023, Malawi imported from neighbouring countries who had enjoyed abundant maize harvests, yet the price per metric tonne in Malawi ($650) far exceeded that in areas such as south-west Tanzania ($250). Analysis suggests that ad hoc trade bans and market speculation added $200 million to the total costs of maize in Malawi from August 2023 to January 2024.
In its recent report, the World Meteorological Organisation indicated a 60% chance of El Niño conditions persisting in March-May 2024. Its models suggest the weather pattern will dissipate fairly soon, with only a 10% likelihood of it continuing in June-August.
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Nonetheless, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network warns that "rainfall deficits will likely result in below-average 2024 harvests, including in surplus-producing South Africa and Zambia".
It estimates that, across southern Africa, over 20 million people will need food assistance during the January-to-March 2024 peak of the lean season. After that, it continues, "the expected below-average 2024 harvests will be exhausted earlier than usual, leading to comparably high food assistance needs at the start of the following lean season in late 2024 and signaling even higher needs when the lean season peaks in early 2025."
It highlights southern Malawi - along with deficit producing areas of Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar - as being "of highest concern".
Charles Pensulo is a Malawian freelance journalist.
