Despite South Africa's impressive HIV testing figures, a subset of people start taking antiretroviral therapy far later than is ideal for their health. This is according to new data from the leading mathematical model of HIV in the country.

About 50,000 people died of HIV-related causes and around 7.8 million were living with HIV in South Africa in 2023. This is according to new estimates from Thembisa, the leading mathematical model of HIV in South Africa.

The new figures were particularly keenly anticipated since they factor in numbers from both Statistics South Africa's Census 2022 and the Human Sciences Research Council's Sixth South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour survey.

Of the estimated 7.8 million people living with HIV in South Africa in 2023 (12.6% of the population), just under 5.9 million were on treatment.

This translates to treatment coverage of 75%, or one in every four people living with HIV not being on treatment. Antiretroviral treatment is recommended for all people living with the infection.

The new Thembisa outputs for the first time include an estimate of people disengaging with treatment. It is calculated that an estimated one million people living with HIV who have previously taken antiretroviral treatment were not taking the treatment in mid-2023.

Of the roughly two million people living with HIV who are not on treatment, half were previously on treatment.

This suggests that helping and supporting people to start and stay on...