The deaths of Tanzanian soldiers raise questions about the ability of the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) mission to defeat M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Three Tanzanian peacekeepers deployed to eastern Congo as part of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission were killed by rebel mortar fire this week. Three others were wounded in the attack.
Their deaths again raise questions about the capacity of the SADC Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, known as SAMIDRC, to neutralize the M23 rebel group in the country's conflict-hit east.
SAMIDRC is made up of forces from South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania. They started deploying in December after DR Congo, one of SADC's 16 members, sought support under the bloc's mutual defense pact.
The deaths of the Tanzanian soldiers are "very worrying," international relations analyst Gilbert Khadiagala told DW, because it shows M23's determination to continue their sweeping attacks across Congo's eastern region.
M23 (March 23 Movement) emerged from dormancy in late 2021 taking up arms again. It has since seized vast swaths of Congo's North Kivu province, including more recently several strategic towns on the outskirts of the provincial capital, Goma.
Recent flares in fighting are exacerbating an already catastrophic humanitarian situation in the east of the country, where over 6.3 million people have fled their homes.
Base under attack
The three peacekeepers were killed in a strike on SAMIDRC's Mubambiro base, just outside of the town of Sake, some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Goma. This is the same base where two South African soldiers were killed and three wounded by a mortar bomb in mid-February.
"This highlights the vulnerability of this base and the likelihood that this will remain the case as combatants continue to rely on artillery and long distance ordnance," wrote Piers Pigou, Southern Africa Programme Head at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, in response to questions by DW.
"It raises questions of SAMIDRC's ability to defend such bases and whether it has the requisite defensive options or will have them in the future."
M23 grows in strength
Congo, the United Nations (UN) and many Western countries accuse Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels in a bid to control the region's vast mineral resources, an allegation Kigali has repeatedly denied.
The M23 rebels are increasingly wielding military-grade weaponry not usually associated with militia groups, including sophisticated assault rifles, GPS-guided long-range mortars and even surface-to-air missiles.
Stephanie Wolters, an expert on the Great Lakes region, stresses that M23 is "very different" now compared to back in 2013 when SADC forces defeated the rebel group in Congo after it temporarily seized Goma.
M23 is a "very determined military force at this point," said Wolters, a senior research fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), and "heavily backed by Rwanda."
"Rwanda is highly motivated. I think that it will invest as much as it can into supporting the M23 to avoid being defeated."
Smaller SADC deployment
The current SADC force is also considerably smaller than the 5,000 military personnel originally pledged. South Africa has said it will mobilize 2,900 soldiers but only around 600 have been deployed so far, according to South African media. Malawi and Tanzania have committed 2,100 soldiers.
Addressing the UN Security Council at the end of March, Bintou Keita, the head of the UN's MONUSCO peacekeeping mission in Congo, said 2,000 SADC troops were in the DRC.
It's "unlikely" the full complement will be deployed, Pigou said, an assessment echoed by other analysts.
SAMIDRC also lacks vital support and equipment. In an interview with South African station Newzroom Afrika, the South African National Defence Union said last week that its soldiers lacked field kitchens, field hospitals and medical military personnel.
More notably, analysts have repeatedly criticized the mission's lacks of air assets such as transport and attack helicopters deemed vital if SAMIDRC is to defeat M23 in the tricky terrain of eastern Congo.
"The region's dense forests, vast landscapes, and the highly mobile nature of insurgent groups mean that robust air capabilities for effective area surveillance, quick force deployment, and logistical supporter are crucial in order to have any realistic hope of tracking, containing, and neutralising them," wrote military analyst Darren Oliver in a 2024 article for SA Flyer, Africa's largest aviation magazine.
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Multiple players involved
SADC forces, however, aren't fighting the rebels alone. With an offensive mandate, the SADC troops are doing battle alongside an informal coalition which includes the Congolese army, forces from neighboring Burundi and Uganda and armed groups allied with Congo's government.
At the same time, SADC forces are also deployed in a region where the UN has started pulling out its 15,000 MONUSCO peacekeepers after Congo's government asked it to leave, citing its failure to secure the country.
"I think that we're really talking about ... probably at best a situation where SADC is able to exert such military pressure on M23 that that forces Rwanda to the negotiating table and to make some concessions with regards to its support to the M23," said analyst Wolters.
"There has to be a political solution. This isn't going to end militarily."
