The result of the elections is of course uncertain, but one thing the polls do show very definitively is that the number of significant political parties will increase. From being a 'one-horse race with some interest from the also-rans', SA is about to join an international trend towards a much more fragmented system.

On Wednesday, SA will enter a new era. That sounds dramatic, but the truth is that this new era will be very like the old era. The sun will rise on Thursday, the moon will set and the ANC will in effect still be in power. Some things will change. Many won't.

From my perspective, in what I call the radical centre, I can tell you now that judging by the election campaign, many things that should change won't and many things that shouldn't change will. But overall, the broad trajectory of SA will stay on its disappointing, not-terrible-but-not-great, mundane path.

But just because not much will change doesn't mean we should be oblivious to the things that will and try to understand their consequences. One thing that will certainly change is that SA will join the world in one important respect: the trend in developing countries towards fragmentation.

The economics research group Capital Economics last week released an interesting report about SA, in which this subject is a feature. The result of the elections is of course uncertain, but one thing the polls do show very definitively is that the number of significant political parties will increase. From...