South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee slightly lowered its forecast for maize production for this season, but the country should have enough to meet domestic demand. Worryingly, the already bleak outlook in neighbouring countries is worsening.

In its fourth production estimate for the 2024 summer crop season, the Crop Estimates Committee slightly reduced the outlook from its third forecast.

The bottom line is that because of the heatwaves linked to the El Niño weather pattern, white maize production is down 25.4% compared with last season at a little over 6.43 million tonnes, while the overall crop is 19% lower at just over 13.3 million tonnes.

Compared with the third estimate, the fourth forecast for white maize was whittled down by 1%.

Because of carry-over stocks, South Africa should have enough of the staple white maize to meet its domestic consumption needs - which is critical for food security as it is the caloric staple for lower-income households.

"... this harvest would meet South Africa's annual maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes, leaving the country with over a million tonnes for exports," Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber, said in a note on the data.

Maize futures prices have also moderated recently, in part because of gains in the rand as pre-election jitters have ebbed.

Still, white maize prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago and prices for yellow maize...