The rand's ultimate course for the rest of 2024 will largely hinge on the government that emerges from the horse-trading that takes place in the coming days.

For all the talk about political uncertainty in the run-up to the 29 May elections, the rand has not been all that volatile this year by its often turbulent standards.

That could change in the coming days and weeks as South Africa's incoming coalition government takes shape.

In the first five months of this year -- up to the 29 May election and the two days that followed -- the rand has traded in a range of roughly 18.08/dlr and 19.32/dlr.

Here are its ranges for the previous four years over the same timeframe, 1 January to 31 May:

• 2023: 16.72 to 19.72
• 2022: 14.50 to 16.15
• 2021: 13.52 to 15.52
• 2020: 14.00 to 19.00

The first five months of this year were the most stable period for the rand over that period this decade.

The currency seemed volatile during May, trading between 18.08/dlr and 18.80/dlr. But even that range is not all that unusual over a month for the rand, which is subject to wide gyrations for a range of factors.

These include its status as a proxy emerging market currency owing to the sophistication of South Africa's financial markets, its categorisation as a commodity currency, which makes it vulnerable to...