Political analysts and academics have painted a bleak picture of South Africa's democracy after political parties failed to amass more than 50 percent of the votes in the recent elections.
Analysts said the emerging political landscape has uncomfortable elements in that "it raises concerns about the fate of black governance, hard-won through decades of struggle against apartheid".
The African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary dominance for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, securing 159 seats in the 400-member National Assembly. The major opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), won 87 seats, while the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) of former President Jacob Zuma won 58 seats.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) took 39 seats while the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) got 17 seats, completing the country's top five political parties. The remainder of the seats went to smaller parties.
Political party leaders and their representatives have started coalition talks, with many suggestions pointing to an ANC-DA alliance, which has created a dilemma considering the two parties' ideological differences.
Other possible coalition partners for the ANC are the MK and EFF, which analysts said further makes the puzzle more cryptic due to a lot of factors.
Though many other players are expecting to see the back of President Cyril Ramaphosa, analysts said it "is unlikely going to happen". Analysts also said the ANC's stature among revolutionary parties in the SADC region will be queried if it courts the DA, hence for it to remain viable, "it will have to compromise and coalesce with its factions (MK and EFF)".
University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political science and international relations lecturer, Dr Prolific Mataruse, said the ANC, as a revolutionary party, was "is in a catch-22 situation".
He said the DA holds so much promise for the idea of a Rainbow Nation "but the differences in policies between the DA and ANC are like those of night and day".
"The investors and the liberal world are really praying for an ANC and DA coalition. There is greater congruence in policies between the ANC on one hand and the MK and EFF on the other. It is more likely that an ANC and MK coalition is plausible but let us remember the ANC still has a lot of months ahead to make a decision, so a lot will depend on how negotiations come out in the coming days," Dr Mataruse said.
According to Dr Mataruse, the "ANC is unlikely to go with the youthful EFF given its feisty nature, which means that the EFF is likely to be ungovernable in a coalition".
Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) principal researcher Dr Bekezela Gumbo said South Africa was at a "critical juncture", where opposition factions are poised to "unite against the ruling ANC" but with looming critical questions.
"Will this unity government inadvertently pave the way for white leadership to return through the DA, given their likely majority partnership? This scenario raises concerns about the fate of black governance, hard-won through decades of struggle against apartheid.
"The stakes are high, and the decision will have far-reaching consequences. If opposition MPs choose to vote for an ANC president, it may be perceived as a betrayal of their constituents, who seek change from ANC rule. On the other hand, if they prioritise black governance, they risk being accused of maintaining the status quo," said Dr Gumbo.
Dr Gumbo is convinced that the battle is mainly between the ANC and the DA, and who among the two parties will get the support of smaller opposition parties particularly the MK and EFF.
He, however, noted that if ANC is to partner with the DA, its life beyond 2029 will be "very bleak as that will be considered a treacherous move".
"Going to DA will remove all the doubt among remaining supporters, who need to be convinced that the ANC has indeed abdicated its nationalist liberation mandate and dines with the former coloniser and capitalist system.
"Zuma and Malema cannot be allowed to operate outside government together because their policies are populist and very attractive to the jobless and landless masses who are eager to wreak havoc," Dr Gumbo added.
Dr David Makwerere, a political scientist at the Bindura University of Science Education (BUSE) said if an ANC-DA coalition pans out, it will be based on personal interests. He pointed out that at a personal level, the DA appeals to ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa because "he comes from the capitalist school".
"He will surely fancy a political formation that will likely further his interests, unlike the EFF, who come across as a radical nationalist and communist proposition advancing the nationalisation agenda. Zuma is arguably a 'sworn enemy' and will less likely appeal.
"It is President Ramaphosa and his Executive Committee that will carry the day, and a coalition with the DA should not be a surprise," Dr Makwerere said.
In Dr Makwerere's assessments, smaller political formations like the IFP "are almost inconsequential", so they are less likely to be options.
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He intimated that the 2024 elections proved that the Ramaphosa administration is not very popular with the grassroots and its losses in KwaZulu Natal province to the MK party are now factors to determine the choice of the next leader for the ANC.
The experts agreed that the challenges within South Africa's pursuit of democratic establishment post-2024 elections is something that will likely benefit some sectors from any coalition outcome, and "perhaps it will work".
Said Dr Gumbo: "Remember the ANC was a coalition from the start, nothing will stop it from making it the way it did before. However, choices made by opposition MPs will shape the nation's future and determine whether the dream of a truly Rainbow Nation remains a reality or fades into a distant memory."
Dr Makwerere said the prospect of a coalition in South Africa is not one that drives excitement because of political maneuverings going on.
Added Dr Makwerere: "Ideological differences will likely hamstring this arrangement. Political maneuverings and war of positioning will likely negatively impact whatever form of coalition in South Africa. Perhaps it will work, let's wait and see."
