South Africa: ANC in Minority - Trying to Understand the Path(s) Ahead for South Africa

analysis

Why have the ANC and its allies fallen apart or become a shadow of themselves, hardly able to put a coherent idea across? What has it been in post-apartheid South Africa, possibly having roots in earlier periods of the ANC's history as well as the history of the country, that may have predisposed this first South African experience of democracy to fall apart?

The South African public may be somewhat bewildered by the results of the general election. This despite many having wanted, and polls predicting, that the ANC would be defeated or rather brought below 50% of the vote.

We are in uncharted territory for post-apartheid South Africa. But the result of this vote has been akin to what happens fairly frequently in Western Europe and sometimes bodes instability. But also fairly often, when partners have had experience working together or in such conditions of minority agreements, there can be stability that endures for some time.

What is creating bewilderment is that there is little local experience from which players may draw. Such minority coalitions or arrangements between the strongest and other parties are well-known in other parts of the world. This has led some to draw up checklists of what stipulations need to be included in any agreement if they want a coalition or other agreement to last.

Often these agreements are too prescriptive or alternatively, overgeneralised. We cannot say that coalitions must share some qualities, but there needs to be sufficient agreement -- not necessarily on ideology -- to be able to work together. It seems that combinations which share...

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