Investing $1 billion in early warning systems would avoid $35 billion in losses each year.
Watching a mother clamber out of her destroyed shelter, baby in hand and sopping wet, as they fled their flooded neighbourhood in Nairobi's Kibra settlement was a heart-breaking moment. Not just for Kenyans, but for all humanity who watched the tragic broadcast images.
The torrential rains that began in mid-April caught most residents by surprise, some as they slept in their homes. The resulting raging floods flattened key infrastructure, washed away buildings and farms, and killed over 300 people. Adding to this tragedy is the fact that many of these losses could have been avoided if there had been effective early warning systems and disaster preparedness in place.
Timely and accurate information about impending hazards such as floods, heat waves, and droughts can give climate-vulnerable communities the opportunity to take proactive measures to protect their lives and livelihoods. According to the Global Commission on Adaptation, spending $800 million per year on early warning systems in developing countries would prevent losses of between $3 billion and $16 billion annually. The World Bank suggests an even higher cost-effectiveness. It estimates that investing $1 billion in early warning systems could avoided losses of $35 billion.
Despite their transformative potential, however, 60% of Africans do not have access to early warning systems. This is the lowest rate of any region in the world.
Innovations new and old
Promisingly in 2022, UN Secretary-General António Guterres launched Early Warnings for All, a global initiative to bring early warning systems to everyone on earth by 2027. The next year, a specialised plan for Africa - the Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa - was unveiled in Nairobi.
This focus brings hope that change may finally be on the horizon. This is especially the case if it can build on existing innovations across the continent - of which there are many.
At the African Institute of Mathematical Sciences, for instance, scientists have pioneered AI-powered weather forecasting models that can update in real-time and simulate long-term predictions much more quickly than traditional methods. In Kenya, 3D-printing models designed by African researchers have made it 50 times cheaper to produce and maintain weather stations. In South Africa and Malawi, drones are being used to aid in wildfire detection and rescue operations or to gather data in flood-prone areas. And around the continent, an initiative launched at COP27 hopes to support 20 million farmers with "next-generation weather intelligence technology" including satellite and AI-based forecasts to help them anticipate extreme weather events.
Innovation goes beyond technology. The early warning service DARAJA, for instance, attempts to improve warnings in cities in the Global South through a "systems-wide approach" that involves not just weather agencies and disaster management officials but urban residents, infrastructure operators, media houses, and schools.
Early warning systems can also be at their most effective when building on tried and tested ideas rather than just new ones. In the South Pacific island of Niue, for example, elders monitor the growth of ufi, a local yam variety, to predict when storms are coming. The Niue Meteorological Service uses observations from both traditional and modern forecasting models.
Many communities around Africa have similar histories of using natural phenomena to forecast weather events and plan accordingly. In western Kenya, the emergence of termites is interpreted as a harbinger of rain. For the Somali community, the sudden migration of birds can indicate approaching heavy rains. Traditional knowledge such as this can be integrated with modern scientific tools to enhance their precision and boost communities' resilience.
Investing in protecting the future
To support the development and uptake of early warning systems, however, finance is key.
To begin with, communities don't just require warnings of upcoming hazards but the capacity to act. On this front, some critical financial innovations are emerging.
For instance, the African Risk Capacity, an agency of the African Union, has been providing governments with "parametric" insurance linked to early warning systems. This form of insurance pays out based on the magnitude of an event occurring - such as drought or a heatwave - rather than in response to specific losses suffered. This kind of insurance can help countries and communities respond more proactively to disasters.
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Through the Today & Tomorrow Initiative (T&T), UNICEF is using parametric insurance to enable faster access to funding when climate disasters strike too. It has been estimated that for every $1 invested in resilience building, $4 is saved in emergency response costs.
Finance is, of course, also needed to fund early warning systems in the first place. To realise the full potential of the Early Warnings for All initiative, governments, the private sector, and philanthropies need think creatively about how to close the estimated $3 billion finance gap.
Investing in early warning systems in Africa could save countless lives and livelihoods on the continent that accounted for 35% of all weather, climate, and water-related fatalities between 1970 and 2021. It would also quickly pay for itself in losses avoided, many times over.
Juma Ignatius is an Adaptation and Resilience Associate at Power Shift Africa. Evelin Eszter Toth is the Climate and Environment Manager at the United Nations Foundation. Carrie Fernandes is the Climate and Environment Intern at the United Nations Foundation.
