The battle lines appear to have been etched on the maps for Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) as the Katonga faction and Najjanakumbi group take their claims.

FDC Katonga got the snub of their political life in the east that has left analysts reaching for their glasses to give a second look at Dr Kizza Besigye's political fate.

After appearing to move the hearts of the voters in his western base, Dr Besigye and his Katonga faction were stunned by the lukewarm reception in the far-east, home of FDC Najjanankumbi duo Nandala Mafabi and Patrick Amuriat.

Besigye cited propaganda, while his counterparts say the east is rebelling.

"The east is where the leader of FDC comes from so they were told a different story," he said.

Political analyst Patrick Wakida, once a mobiliser of FDC in the east, says the snub is because of a broken mobilisation structure in the region.

"Who mobilised for Besigye before he came? You can't come from no where and expect people to be there," he said.

Wakida says Besigye's fate in the east will the same fate Amuriat and Mafabi in the west.

Charles Olweny concurs but adds that regional and tribal political alignments are not a new phenomenon.

"We as a country have not grown beyond regional and tribal sentiments people vote their own and not national interests," Olweny, also a political analyst, said.

But where does this leave the FDC ahead of 2026?

"FDC got 5 percent in 2021 general elections, this time they may not even get 1 percent," Olweny said.