South Africa: Coalitions Complex & Complicated - - Let the Thousand Permutations Bloom

analysis

With less than a week before the National Assembly and the nine provincial legislatures have their first sittings after the elections, it is still unclear what will happen and whether political parties can work together. Despite that, some things are known and some assumptions can be made.

There is little that is certain about our politics in normal times, never mind times as complex as these where such a tight deadline is imposed upon decision-makers. That said, some things can be safely assumed to be true.

The first is that there will not be a rerun of the 2024 election.

The Constitution appears to limit the option of another election in these circumstances to situations where "the result of an election of the National Assembly is not declared within the period established in terms of section 190, or if an election is set aside by a court..."

The election has already been declared by the Electoral Commission, meaning the only other option is if a court sets it aside.

uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) has repeatedly said it will contest the validity of the election in court, but as yet has presented no evidence of wrongdoing.

Second, it is safe to assume that any government must include the ANC and that it will be the main, dominant partner.

This is not just because it won more than 40% of the vote, which is much more than anyone else. It is also because the parties that came second, third and...

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