An expert panel give their verdict on critical climate negotiations at the just-concluded conference in Bonn.
A gruelling two weeks of climate negotiations concluded in Bonn late last week. High on the agenda was the question of climate finance and how the trillions of dollars the Global South needs to address climate change will be provided. Negotiators are expected to agree on a new climate finance goal at COP29 in Azerbaijan this November. The goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), will come into effect in 2025, replacing the previous $100 billion per year pledge.
We asked a range of experts, negotiators, researchers, and activists for their verdict on what unfolded in Bonn and where it leaves Africa.
Mohamed Adow: Bonn has left 1.5C in peril
It's sadly clear that this latest summit in Bonn has left the goal of limiting dangerous global heating to under 1.5C in peril. The underlying reason is that rich countries are backtracking on their financial pledges. That means we need to see African leaders coordinating their efforts to get the world back on track.
Next year, countries are due to submit their next round of five-year national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are the bedrock for the collective global effort to tackle climate change. These are now in danger. This is because developing countries have no assurances that the climate finance they were promised, and which fund the NDCs, will be there.
If COP29 in Baku delivers an underwhelming finance goal, or a failed COP, it would imperil millions of Africans that need climate finance as well as taking the wind out of the sails of developing countries' NDCs to be published next year. How can these poorer countries be expected to slay the climate monster with only paper swords? They need to be equipped with the assurances that the long-term finance will be in place to fund their national plans to decarbonise their energy systems.
If countries can set a clear and unambiguous path to long term finance in Baku, then the world will be set up for a hope-filled and ambitious round of climate action plans next year. The next six months are crucial to achieve that goal but the work to achieve it starts now.
- Mohamed Adow is the director of Power Shift Africa.
Iskander Erzini Vernoit: Time and patience are running out
From an African perspective, the 2024 Bonn Climate Change Conference represented a continuation of the struggle for international climate justice. Nevertheless, the bigger fight of 2024 - the new collective quantified goal ("NCQG") on climate finance, mandated to be agreed at COP29 - is yet to come.
Of course, under ideal circumstances, Africa would not have to fight for justice. However, in Bonn, we were witness to unfortunate pushes by developed countries to avoid the language of principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, such as equity and common but differentiated responsibilities. Developed countries sought to discuss all finance, except that which would come from them. This included talk of "broadening of the contributor base" or "All Parties" becoming contributors. These are perceived as attempts to broaden the blame game and dilute responsibilities.
Africa will not stand for obfuscation of unmet responsibilities. On the contrary, Africa has led calls for burden-sharing frameworks to better clarify who is responsible.
In this decade of unspeakable urgency, developed countries must provide an order of magnitude more finance. All studies show they remain responsible for the great majority of climate finance. They should address their own capabilities, rather than quibbling about those of others.
Time and patience are running out. $1.3 trillion per year was the NCQG quantum that the African Group argued for in Bonn, representing Africa's 54 countries. At COP29, Africa will have a duty to itself and to history to reject proposals that fail to be adequate to what science and justice require.
- Iskander Erzini Vernoit is executive director of the Imal Initiative for Climate and Development.
Evans Njewa: We cannot deal with this on our own
Bonn left us concerned once again. The slow pace that discussions are moving forwards does not match the urgency of the climate crisis we face. While climate action clearly needs to accelerate in this critical decade, discussions in Bonn on ensuring that happens were stalled.
We are a group of 45 countries that emit the least but are worst affected by climate change, so climate finance is particularly important to us. We all know that without climate finance, there's no climate action. At COP29, a new goal for climate finance is due to be set. Parties have been deliberating the goal for years now without getting much closer to agreement.
In Bonn, we hoped to make more progress towards ensuring that the new goal will match the actual needs of our countries. It will need to be far greater than the old $100 billion per year promise if we are to have any chance of mitigating warming, supporting communities to adapt to impacts and build resilience, and addressing the inevitable loss and damage that climate change is increasingly causing.
The Bonn talks leave us with a lot of work to do before Baku if COP29 is to deliver what is needed for our people. We need to see a shift in gears with parties stepping up to meet their responsibilities for action and support. The climate crisis is a global issue that demands a cooperative response. Solidarity is vital; we cannot deal with this on our own.
- Evans Njewa is chair of the Least Developed Countries Group (LDC) at UN Climate Change negotiations.
David McNair: Zero out of three
We hoped for three things from the Bonn meeting in preparation for this year's big-ticket climate negotiation item - a new climate finance goal. First, we were looking for an agreement on quantifying the new climate finance goal based on the needs and priorities of developing countries. Second, a commonly agreed definition of what climate finance actually is. Third, a commitment to ensuring it is additional to development assistance.
Sadly, Bonn scored zero on these points.
The world's developing countries came to Bonn with concrete suggestions. The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries is calling for a goal of at least $1 trillion per year, and the African Group of Negotiators have suggested $1.3 trillion per year. Instead of engaging with these suggestions, rich countries have chosen to sidestep them and now risk squandering what little goodwill they gained from finally meeting their previous pledge of providing $100 billion in climate finance.
But this isn't just geopolitics. It is holding the world's most climate-vulnerable and cash-strapped countries back from mitigating the worst effects of the climate crisis investing in maximising their own transitions to develop climate solutions for themselves - but also for the world.
- David McNair is the Executive Director for Global Policy at ONE.
Willard Mapulanga: Slow progress but a glaring lack of urgency
The conviction that finance is the "great enabler of climate action" by UN Climate Change chief, Simon Stiell, during his opening speech did little to turn negotiations into the urgency needed to address the unique characteristics and realities of poor countries. The negotiations, particularly on finance, stalled. Efforts to build consensus on the most contentious issues barely materialised.
The Bonn conference sadly indicates the lack of urgency in terms of scale and speed required to make significant progress on tackling the liquidity pressures the most vulnerable economies face. This is concerning particularly for Africa which is experiencing the simultaneous effect of liquidity constraints and reeling effects of climate change despite its little contributions to global emissions. The structural and systemic difficulties that Africa faces make it hard for the continent to score significant developmental gains. The current finance architecture increases the debt burden in African economies. These countries are unable to respond due to severe liquidity pressures, and finance is nowhere near to ameliorate their unfortunate circumstances.
As such, Bonn was disappointing in that negotiations failed to advance preparations for new climate actions such as finance. Additionally, discussions were mostly removed from embodying common principles of equity and respective capabilities. Instead, the world is still stuck on thorny differences in the amount required to finance climate action, who contributes, and who benefits.
We hoped that discussions would yield transformative outcomes to pave the way for stronger momentum required ahead of COP29. It is, therefore, important that parties bridge these differences on the new finance target - the New Collective Quantified Goal, for instance - including clarifying finance that is new and additional in order to constructively implement the Global Stocktake and enhance Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
- Willard Mapulanga is the Programme Officer in Sustainable Finance at the African Climate Foundation.
Olivia Rumble: More nuance than 15 years ago
We always look to Bonn as a litmus test of what's to come [at COP] in November. Based on this year's meetings, it seems as if a lot of work still needs to be done to bring parties together on the new finance goal and financing adaptation. On the new goal, developed countries are still shy to put a number to the overall "quantum", with Australia reportedly calling it the "star on the Christmas tree" that can be decided later. Although a complicated process, it is important to at least start working towards an initial number given that the estimated need is in the trillions. Other contentious aspects - such as the push to expand the donor base to include wealthier developing countries and to limit the number of recipients - remained on the table, reinforcing a stalemate.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Positively, parties are working on a goal that has a lot more nuance than the bald number [of $100 billion per year] that was agreed to more than a decade ago. This year, countries are looking to finesse the form of finance, payment intervals, scope and sub-goals, and other qualitative elements. The text has mushroomed into an informal 35-page input paper. The trick will be narrowing this down to something workable that everyone agrees to by the end of this year.
On adaptation finance, it was disappointing to see the same reluctance by developed countries to talk about indicators for means of implementation (i.e. finance and technology transfer) for the newly agreed Global Adaptation Goal. Agreeing to indicators is important and necessary to track implementation and ensure transparency.
- Olivia Rumble is a climate change legal and policy expert, and a director of Climate Legal.
Jack Odiwa: We need a united African front on climate finance
This year is supposed to be the year the nations of the world set a new long term climate finance goal. Basically agreeing how much the big polluting nations that have caused the climate crisis are going to pay to clean up their mess. This needs to cover helping vulnerable communities adapt to extreme weather, compensate for the losses and damages they have suffered, and also fund the energy transition.
That decision will be hammered out in Baku, Azerbaijan, at the end of the year. Bonn was supposed to be a crucial staging point along the way. But the lack of progress in Germany was deeply worrying. Rich countries dragged their feet and refused to take clear positions. The whole meeting ended without any clear outcomes that give us confidence nations are ready to delivery a positive outcome in Baku that will bring hope to the climate vulnerable that need it most.
These rich countries have been able to mobilise billions in quick time for the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, but when it comes to those in need because of climate breakdown they delay and obfuscate. This is an active choice they are making. They could deliver the funds that are needed but shamefully they choose not to. We need to see African leaders working together to hold these countries to honour their previous commitments and pay their climate debt. There's still time to get the live saving funds we need but it requires a united front from Africa's leaders.
- Jack Odiwa is Christian Aid's Africa Advocacy Advisor.
Where we ask a diverse panel of experts, researchers, and activists to reflect.
