More than a generation since it won its hard-fought independence, Eritrea is synonymous with Isaias Afwerki. For better. Or for worse.
As Eritrea marked its 33rd Independence Day on May 24, 2024, the country stood amid a complex web of regional tensions and internal strife. This milestone comes against the backdrop of Eritrea's military interventions in neighbouring states, diplomatic engagements, and ongoing internal conflicts. Eritrea's alignment with the Sudanese army against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its involvement in military training of ethnic groups in eastern Sudan exemplify its regional strategy to counter perceived encirclement by UAE-aligned regimes; Ethiopia to the South and a possibility of RSF-controlled Sudan, to the West. Meanwhile, Eritrea's contentious relationship with Ethiopia and Eritrea's own internal and external dissidents, symbolised by opposition groups like Birged N'Hamedu, which is supported by Ethiopia , will shape its political landscape.
Eritrea in eastern Sudan
Eritrea has never stopped interfering in Sudan. It has supported Sudanese armed opposition groups to operate from its borders during Omer Al Bashir's rule before relations between the two countries were mended. It has always treated eastern Sudan as its backyard and a security risk. The current militarisation of ethnic forces by Eritrea who compete for power and resources in eastern Sudan may lead to deadly military clashes among them, taking into account that earlier several ethnic-oriented clashes that occurred in the region following the fall of Omer Al Bashir regime in 2019 turning relatively peaceful eastern Sudan into a potentially new conflict zone. The possibility of RSF moving into eastern Sudan close to the border, will engage Eritrean troops directly with RSF. According to informed sources close to the military there, Eritrea is prepared for such scenario to unfold.
After the bromance, a deluge of accusations
Regarding Ethiopia, Eritrea has taken the border areas with Tigray that it claims were awarded to it by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission in 2002 and whose recommendations have since remained unimplemented. The Tigray region claims Eritrea is occupying Tigrayan territory, but Prime Minister Abiy has publicly stated that he had no problem with that as long as they are occupying areas awarded to them. Caught between Eritrea and the Tigray region is a Catholic minority of about 40,000 who speak the Cushitic Saho language. They have now come under Eritrea's administration.
Further straining relations in the region, Ethiopia hosted a public gathering of the Eritrean youth-based opposition group, Birged N'Hamedu, in Addis Ababa. This move has escalated tensions with Eritrea, particularly as Ethiopia's internal conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions continue unabated. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of backing the Amhara rebel group, Fano.
The Sudanese-Ethiopian dynamics
At the end of May, Ethiopia, suspected of backing the RSF, hosted the inaugural congress of the Sudanese Coordination Council of the Civilian Democratic Forces (CCDF) in Addis Ababa. The CCDF has signed an agreement with the RSF to end the war in the country. With over 600 attendees from various political and social backgrounds, the CCDF stands in opposition to the war in Sudan, a stance viewed unfavourably by the Sudanese army, which brands the CCDF as a traitorous faction as the army promotes the notion that you are either with us or against us. Eritrea considers the CCDF as agents of Western countries and has no relations with it.
The strife within Ethiopia
Tensions within Ethiopia's government itself persist, with ongoing disputes between the federal government and the Amhara Regional Administration, as well as the Tigray Interim Administration, regarding the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and the delayed return of displaced Tigrayans from contested areas in western and southern Tigray. In response to escalating tensions, the Ethiopian Prime Minister has publicly cautioned representatives from Tigray against inciting new conflicts, warning of dire consequences should hostilities resume. Meanwhile, accusations and counteraccusations persist between the Amhara and Tigray regional governments, further exacerbating the situation. The intersection of the borders of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan could likely be the source of future disputes.
Regional and international ramifications
Shifting alliances in the region have also been observed, with the January 2024 memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland for a Red Sea concession causing ripples. This move has left Ethiopia regionally isolated, while Somalia strengthens its ties with Eritrea and Egypt altering the geopolitical landscape of the region. With Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia occupying strategic positions along the Red Sea and with the involvement of regional and global powers such as Egypt, UAE, Iran, Turkey and Russia supporting one side or the other in the conflicts in the region, the prolonged conflict in Sudan will begin to take on regional and international ramifications. Recent statements from Somali officials calling for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country have further aggravated the tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia and may signal the deployment of Eritrean troops to replace them.
Isaias' speech
As usual, the president delivered a speech at Asmara Stadium to a crowd bussed in from various districts of the capital. While most Eritreans have long given up hope of the president implementing reforms or announcing positive changes, some still expect him to address improvements in their livelihood each year. This year's speech was no different from those of previous years. It was detached from reality, resembling a lecture on the global order rather than an address on the nation's progress. Instead of reflecting on the country's achievements or challenges over the years, he focused on "the need to properly decipher and understand the ideologies and global policies articulated over the past thirty-three years."
During the 13-minute Independence Day address, the president primarily delved into the current global dynamics, denoting them as a realm dominated by what he labelled as "forces of hegemony and domination," with a focus on China and Russia, advocating for a fresh global paradigm. However, for many in the audience unfamiliar with such terminology, this discourse remained largely obscure. Unsurprisngly, in a nation where access to information is limited to a single television station, one radio channel, and a government-controlled newspaper, the populace has been consistently indoctrinated to perceive the U.S. and the TPLF as adversaries responsible for the country's stagnation.
In February 2010, during a gathering of public-school educators, then Minister of Education, Semere Russom declared the United States as Eritrea's principal foe, alleging its orchestration of the sanctions imposed on the nation. Semere further contended that the U.S. embassy hired individuals to act as beggars to perpetuate the misconception that Eritreans suffered from hunger.
The president warned of imminent threats of new conflicts in the region. For the first time publicly, the president expressed solidarity with the Palestinian struggle for independence, marking a departure from Eritrea's stance as the sole African nation not recognizing Palestine as a state.
In what could be interpreted as a reference to recent clashes between supporters and opponents of the regime, notably involving the youth-based Birged N'Hamedu, the president conveyed gratitude to compatriots residing abroad for their unwavering patriotism, particularly during challenging periods, notably the preceding year. He encouraged them to persist in their efforts.
A new dynamic in the Eritrean opposition
There are many Eritrean opposition groups in the diaspora, some as old as the regime itself, but they have been fragmented and ineffective, lacking presence inside the country. Birged N'Hamedu, a loosely structured collective of Eritrean youth in the diaspora, emerged in 2022 amidst the Tigray conflict, vehemently denouncing the atrocities committed by Eritrean troops in the region. Their actions gained global attention when they clashed with supporters of the regime while attempting to disrupt events that financially benefit the government. Dubbed the 'Blue Revolution', they adopt and rally behind the blue Eritrean flag, ratified by the Eritrean Assembly in 1952, in opposition to the regime's flag carried by the EPLF.
Before engaging in these clashes, the organisation typically calls upon local law enforcement agencies to prevent regime supporters from holding festivals, as they often lead to confrontations and to interrupt the festivals, if they are held. These altercations have escalated into violence in various Western countries, including the United States and its ally, Israel, resulting in fatalities, injuries, and arrests, including among law enforcement officers. Several members of the group are currently detained in different countries, with some facing deportation.
Initially, during the Tigray conflict, Tigrayans rallied behind and participated in solidarity campaigns with Birged N'Hamedu. Furthermore, certain Eritrean factions advocating for the Tigray-Tigrinya ideology, proposing the unification of Tigray and Eritrea as one nation, offered support. Consequently, the regime and certain Eritrean factions have labelled Birged N'Hamedu as a movement backed by the TPLF. Currently, Birged N'Hamedu is in the process of consolidating into a unified movement.
A Facebook group affiliated with the Eritrean regime, dubbed the group activities as "The Bloodshed Campaign," has accused Ethiopia's intelligence agency, INSA, of backing them and providing bases in Addis Ababa and Tigray as recently as September 2023. Predictably, they have also alleged Western support for the group while claiming its members are of Tigrayan origin. Notably, the group organized a significant public gathering in Tigray in November 2023.
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They have since convened several meetings in Addis Ababa, during which some leaders have openly advocated for armed resistance or targeted military actions within Eritrea. These gatherings in Addis Ababa are poised to heighten tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Eritrea as a regional and international actor
Over the past few years, the president has shown a willingness to participate in Africa summits held outside the continent, while notably abstaining from African Union and IGAD summits. Drawing parallels between the Eritrean regime and North Korea, both nations have consistently voted together in the United Nations on several occasions. However, the president demonstrated a distinct interest in attending the Korea-Africa summit, held recently.
The regime's relationship with China and Russia has been notably amicable. A delegation from the Russian navy, led by Vice Admiral Vladimir Kasatonov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, undertook a five-day visit to Eritrea's Massawa port in April of this year. Despite speculation surrounding the potential establishment of a logistical base in Eritrea, Russia's primary focus appears to be on the development of the deeper port in Port Sudan. Sudan's Ambassador to Russia has reiterated his country's commitment to facilitating the construction of a Russian naval base on the Red Sea.
After 33 years of independence, Eritrea has regressed in terms of economic development. Internally it continues to be an open-air prison where citizens are desperate to leave at any available opportunity. Regionally it remains a pariah state active in destabilizing its neighbours. The Birged N'Hamedu, cannot replace or neglect the traditional opposition and the Eritrean regime has been very effective in infiltration of opposition groups and sabotaging them from within and there is no reason why it cannot do the same with this new group. It is also difficult to tell whether the Ethiopian regime or the TPLF who are in charge of Tigray, are keen to allow cross-border insurgency into Eritrea. There is reliable information that there have been meetings between Eritrean regime and Tigrayan officials to reconcile both sides. It is only a broad coalition of the Eritrean opposition that would likely mount an effective challenge of the Eritrean regime.
Mohamed Kheir Omer is an African-Norwegian researcher and writer based in Oslo, Norway. He is a former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF).
