The 20-year-development plan approved by the Council of Ministers Tuesday (17 June) admits the past decade has been a disaster. "Lower than expected economic growth resulted in lower investment, higher unemployment and a reduction in the government's capacity to finance social programmes and essential infrastructure" in the decade 2015-2023. The plan notes that 46% of the population was below the consumption poverty line in 2015, but this had jumped to 65% in 2022; inequality had also increased. It also shows that 37% of children under 5 years old now suffer "chronic malnutrition".
The full Estratégia Nacional de Desenvolvimento 2025-2044 (ENDE, National Development Strategy) is on https://www.mef.gov.mz/index.php/publicacoes/estrategias/2184-estrategia-nacional-de-desenvolvimento-2025-2024/file and https://bit.ly/Moz-ENDE
With Filipe Nyusi on his way out as president, perhaps the Council of Ministers and the Ministry of Economy and Finance which coordinated the ENDE felt they could be more honest about his decade in office.
"Endemic corruption in various sectors of society jeopardises citizens' trust and the effectiveness of governance. As a result, there is a decrease in public confidence, diversion of resources, inefficiency in public administration and reduced economic growth," ENDE admits. And it adds that "kidnappings have become a present threat to personal security and public order."
"Dependence on sectors such as low-productivity agriculture and the extractive industry has limited economic diversification. As a result, the country has become susceptible to external shocks, limited economic growth and a lack of innovation and competitiveness," the ENDE says. It adds that "macroeconomic instability generated by adverse shocks has resulted in lower than expected economic growth, resulting in lower investment, higher unemployment and a reduction in the government's capacity to finance social programmes and essential infrastructure."
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Among the "adverse shocks" was that the "the abrupt withdrawal of international partners from General Budget Support in 2015 significantly affected the funding and implementation of programmes. As a result, it has led to a reduction in financial resources for development projects, the need to reorient policies and increased dependence on limited domestic resources." The ENDE does not say that the "abrupt withdrawal" came when the head of the IMF and ambassadors in Maputo suddenly discovered that the very top of the government had been lying to them when they said the $2bn secret debt did not exist.
The plan also points to "disparities in access to basic public services, affecting equity and social development. These disparities have been largely influenced by insufficient resources for investment, extreme weather events, the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid population growth. As a result, the population in situations of vulnerability and poverty has increased, as have regional inequalities."
Finally, ENDE also points to "Climate change and vulnerabilities to natural disasters" including cyclones Kenneth, Idai and Freddie and to the insurgency in Cabo Delgado.
