Mozambique: A High Risk Strategy

The ENDE ends with a set of risks. One is that "the risk of poor diversification of the economy (industrialisation, production, productivity, technology and innovation) can result from dependence on natural resources; poor agricultural performance as a source of raw materials for industry can lead to the import of raw materials, raising production costs and reducing the competitiveness and performance of national industry; structural and regulatory barriers; insufficient investment in research, technology, innovation and entrepreneurship; resistance to change; an unfavourable investment climate; low labour skills and others."

But ENDE make several assumptions that are also high risk, but not identified as such:
+ The 20-year program will cost $264bn which will come from Mozambican government funding, foreign investment, public-private partnerships, loans, development banks, and aid.
+ GDP will grow by more than 9% per year.
+ Government income will increase from 25% of GDP to 30%.
+ Government spending will increase from 33% of GDP to 45%, which implicitly assumes changes in IMF policy.

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