Simple simulations show that by sustaining past improvements in the South African schooling system, reaching the relatively acceptable quality seen in Malaysia today is possible in 10 to 15 years.

The 2024 McKinsey education report showcases South Africa as one of seven "sustained and outsized improvers" when it comes to the quality of schooling, based on data from international assessment programmes.

These trends excite development economists, given the evidence on how education quality drives economic growth.

South Africa's trends, highlighted by McKinsey and others, are easily met by disbelief among South Africans accustomed to bad news about our schools.

To be clear, the international data show that the skills of South Africa's learners remain below the norm for a middle-income country. Yet relatively steep improvements are underway in a context where countries typically experience no change at all.

The inconvenient truth about whole schooling systems is that improving learning is a painfully slow process. It can be sped up in confined groups of schools with a zealous team of interventionists, but entire schooling systems, with their politics and very gradual teacher workforce turnover rates, are Titanics that rarely change course.

Does this mean we need to abandon the hope of quality schooling in our lifetimes? No. Simple simulations show that by sustaining past improvements, reaching the relatively acceptable quality seen in Malaysia today...