Suspicions around the death of VP Saulos Chilima augur badly for Chakwera's re-election hopes, and even worse for the ruling coalition.
Saulos Klaus Chilima or SKC, the fallen vice president of Malawi stunned many when in 2020, he decided to form an electoral alliance with Malawi Congress Party (MCP), the country's liberation and independence party. He had just contested in the 2019 general elections as a presidential candidate on an UTM Party ticket, a breakaway party of the then ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
While the main mission of Tonse Alliance was to oust Peter Mutharika and DPP from power, there were no clear guidelines on how nine party manifestos would be integrated. The arrangement was done in haste; it would have serious repercussions beyond 2020, some of them bordering on insincerity and hypocrisy. Blinded by the zeal to form a new government, UTM Party and Chilima did not see what was coming.
Political analysts branded MCP and UTM Party as strange bedfellows, warning the alliance would succeed in toppling Mutharika but its future stood on shaky ground. That was worsened by the secretive contents of the Tonse Alliance agreement. Only President Lazarus Chakwera and Chilima were privy to its contents. UTM Party leaders said one of the key conditionalities of the alliance was that the presidency would be rotational, meaning Chilima was to be Tonse Alliance's next presidential candidate in the 2025 polls.
All that came to an abrupt end when a military plane crashed in bad weather, killing Chilima and eight others on June 10. That plane crash has left the country devastated, replete with conspiracy theories and tongues wagging. Chilima went to his grave with secrets surrounding the agreement that bound together the Tonse Alliance, a coalition that brought together nine political parties.
"We probably will never know what exactly is in that agreement. No one is willing to talk about it. But we can speculate with certainty that in all this, it is the UTM Party that is disadvantaged. With Chilima gone, the ground on which Tonse Alliance stands is completely shaky," said one politician, who insisted on anonymity. It is a line of thought that is shared by many across the political divide.
Already three parties - Alliance for Democracy (Aford), People's Transformation (Petra) and People's Progressive Movement (PPM) - have left Tonse Alliance, citing corruption and lack of implementation of some clauses in the agreement. Some coalition partners have openly said they did not gain in terms of sharing positions in the Tonse Alliance government. They feel used and dumped.
"We were used and dumped but there is nothing we can do because there is no legal backing. MCP is doing all what it wants, we are not sharing our knowledge in all this to help develop the country," PPM's Mark Katsonga Phiri said. He suggested a clear legal framework to guide future political alliances.
UTM Party betrayed, frustrated
After winning the Constitutional Court-sanctioned presidential election in 2020, all nine parties had high hopes of delivering on their campaign pledges. They would soon be shocked as MCP disregarded all the other manifestos and largely started implementing what was in its own development blue print.
UTM Party spokesperson, Felix Njawala, told one of Malawi's dailies, The Nation, an announcement regarding the alliance will be made at an appropriate time.
He said: "There is an agreement that will be laid out to the public and with our partners. We believe that whatever is in the agreement will be followed. An appropriate time will come when UTM and the alliance will make a statement."
On the performance of the Tonse Alliance administration, Njawala said while his party has acquired experience on how to deal with different parties, their agenda is not being implemented.
"It's frustrating because people align failure of this government to the manifesto we pushed through. We talked of the one million jobs, three meals a day, K15,000 for the elderly and K14,000 cost of passport.
"Major frustration is on megafarms. This is the main ingredient for seven of our pillars, and failure to implement this fully has resulted in failure to implement everything. Yes, megafarms are being done, but not as we were preaching," he said.
Strained relations
It is indisputable that the charismatic vice president was a critical factor in Tonse Alliance's victory in 2020. In 2019 Chilima amassed over a million votes when he stood on the UTM Party ticket. Those votes, combined with President Chakwera's and those of smaller parties, catapulted Tonse Alliance into the much-needed victory in 2020.
Cracks would soon appear in Tonse Alliance; Chilima was reduced to a vice president who was underutilized. Relations between the two leaders became more strained when, in a cabinet reshuffle, Chilima did not get any ministerial position as was the arrangement immediately after Tonse Alliance victory.
Chilima's arrest on November 25 2022, over allegations that he had received US$280,000 from British businessman Zuneth Sattar in return for influencing the awarding of government contracts to his firms, only worsened matters. UTM Party insisted that the alleged corruption case was politically motivated to reduce Chilima's chances of contesting for the presidency in 2025.
President Lazarus Chakwera said: "As for the Vice President, his office is unique in that the Constitution does not provide for his suspension or removal from it by the President, because he holds that office by the will of Malawian voters, which I respect. As such, the best I can do for now, which is what I have decided to do, is to withhold from his office any delegated duties while waiting for the Bureau to substantiate its allegations against him and to make known its course of action in relation to such."
But in a surprise move, in May this year, the charges against Chilima were dropped, with no reasons given, a development that riled rights and anti-corruption activists.
Commenting on a similar development when former president Bakili Muluzi's corruption case was discontinued, Professor Danwood Chirwa, a lecturer at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, hinted that the Director of Public Prosecution's decision was a clear indication of failure to prosecute what he described as high-profile cases.
"This institution has truly become a toothless bulldog. The discontinuance shows, once again, that corruption by those at the top will be tolerated and left unpunished, at great expense to Malawians. This is why every government is engulfed in unending cycles of looting, corruption and embezzlement. As chances of accountability range from minimal to zero, there is no disincentive to such bad behaviour," Chirwa said.
The corruption case and Chilima's legacy
While the corruption case may have a serious effect on the popularity of Chilima, disappointing some of his admirers and supporters, in death they have all agreed to mourn him honourably and continue his legacy and live the dream he had for the nation.
"What set Dr. Chilima apart was his genuine care for the people he served. He was approachable and compassionate, always listening to the voices of Malawians from all walks of life. His ability to connect with people on a personal level made him not just a leader but a beloved figure in our hearts.
"As I reflect on his legacy, I am inspired by his resilience and dedication. Dr. Chilima's vision for a better Malawi will continue to guide us as we move forward. Though he is no longer with us, his spirit lives on in the changes he brought and the hope he instilled in us all," UTM Party's Njawala said.
Chilima did not publicly announce his candidacy for the 2025 presidential election. Chakwera on the other hand has expressed interest to contest as MCP presidential candidate after senior party officials endorsed his name. An elective convention will be held in August this year where Chakwera is likely to go unopposed.
MCP publicist Ezekiel Ching'oma said the national executive committee (NEC) will meet to review and make fresh electoral arrangements for 2025 general elections.
"This agreement does not extend beyond that specified [2025] period. Consequently, the NEC will convene again to discuss and plan for the future. We will reconvene and engage in constructive discussions to formulate a fresh agreement that encompasses all the parties we intend to collaborate with. This will allow us to establish a renewed and comprehensive alliance, ensuring a strong and unified front for the years to come," Ching'oma said.
Going by the most recent events, especially after it was established that Chilima and eight others, including former first lady, Patricia Shanil Dzimbiri [Chilima's national advisor on women affairs], were killed in the plane crash in Chikangawa forest in Mzimba district, Chakwera's reelection chances have taken a big hit.
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What has annoyed many, especially in the UTM Party, was how the search and rescue operation was conducted. Chilima's plane was supposed to land at Mzuzu International Airport at 10:00 am on Monday 10th June from the capital Lilongwe. It was turned back before landing because of bad weather. It crashed soon after, but the speed the government organised a search-and-rescue operation raised serious concerns. UTM Party, the Chilima family and the Catholic church have demanded a commission of inquiry - which they say should be thorough and independent.
Crowds booing and jeering as the president delivered his condolence message during the national funeral service at Bingu National Stadium demonstrated the depth of collective grief - and at whom the public was pointing an accusing finger. Tense press briefings conducted by UTM Party about the plane crash, songs sang by his followers and the stoning of government vehicles in the funeral procession from Lilongwe to Ntcheu, causing one to lose control and crash into the crowd outside Chilima's home. Four lives were tragically lost. All this speaks volumes of simmering disagreements in the Tonse Alliance, which could boil over.
While Chakwera has appointed UTM Party vice president, Michael Usi as to replace Chilima, the general view is that he Usi, who has served in cabinet since 2020, is likely to raise his political stock.
"Very few UTM Party officials attended his swearing-in ceremony as vice president at Parliament building. That alone is a vote of no confidence in Usi. He has a lot of work to do to rebuild UTM Party. The biggest question is: will UTM Party members accept him as their natural leader," said one political analyst in Blantyre.
Despite the challenges, Usi said he was grateful to the UTM family, "for the support you have given me in the time I have been our party's Vice President, and I pledge to you that I will do my best to build our party and uphold our shared values and restore our unity as we forge ahead to keep alive the dream of Tsogolo Lathu Lowala [Our bright future]."
How Chakwera, Usi and the remaining partners in Tonse Alliance will turn things around, remains to be seen. One thing that is for sure is that minus Chilima, the local political terrain will never be the same again. The future of Tonse Alliance hangs in the balance.
