Each time the African Union (AU) nears election season, the member countries of the region whose turn it is to fill the organization's most influential seats enter into a kind of tug-of-war for the nomination of their preferred candidates.
The AU is slated to elect its new leaders early 2025, with the deadline for the registration of candidates set for August 6, 2024. With less than a month to go, the sense of competition within the continental organization is palpable.
The election process for the AUC Senior Leadership has kicked off with a call for interested candidates to submit, to their respective member states, their curriculum vitae, along with vision statements outlining how they intend to advance the transformative agenda of the African Union, and address the existing and emerging challenges facing the continent.
The actual elections will take place in February 2025 during the annual AU summit in Addis Ababa. All eight senior AUC leadership positions are up for grabs, including those of Chairperson, Deputy Chairperson, and six Commissioner posts.
According to the AU's rotation schedule, the next chairperson will hail from East Africa and the deputy chairperson post will go to a candidate hailing from North Africa. Each of these regions (known in AU parlance as the Eastern and Northern regions) are expected to submit both male and female candidates for the roles. The remaining regions (Central, Southern, and Western) are expected to submit the names of at least two male and female candidates for the six commissioner posts.
- Advertisement -Each region has the autonomy to determine its own procedure for the nomination process, and only names submitted by the regions will be considered during the pre-selection process undertaken by the Panel of Eminent Africans. Member states facing AU sanctions are not allowed to submit candidates for nomination.
So far, Kenya, Djibouti, Tanzania, Somalia, and Seychelles have nominated candidates for the chairperson post but only a few have garnered endorsement. Ethiopian candidates are ineligible for the chairperson position as Addis Ababa is the seat of the AU. Sudanese candidates are also out of the running as the country is barred from AU activities as a result of the coup and ensuing war.
The exceptions leave a narrow candidate pool, but forecasts for the potential outcome are still opaque. The fact the east African countries are member of different regional blocks have also created diverging interests, dividing the supports for the candidates.
The AU has also specified that if the chairperson is to be a man, then the deputy must be a woman. It follows the current structure, which comprises Moussa Faki of Chad as chair and Rwanda's Monique Nsanzabaganwa as deputy. Faki was elected from the central region, and re-elected by 51 of the 55 member states, to serve between 2021 and 2024.
A Panel of Eminent Africans, composed of five individuals, one from each region, was set up in February 2024 to oversee the pre-selection process for all eight positions. The Panel is responsible for setting out the criteria and competency requirements for the leadership posts and conducting assessments on nominees.
Members of the Panel include Paul Ngarambe (Prof.) of Burundi, Konjit Sinegiorgis (Amb.) of Ethiopia, Nozipho Joyce Mxakato-Diseko from South Africa, and Ghana's Patrick Hayford.
Ultimately, it is the Assembly of Heads of State and Government who will elect the chairperson and deputy chairperson to serve a four-year term, which is renewable for one additional term. The Ministerial Executive Council will elect the six commissioners appointed by the Assembly.
Prior to the elections conducted via secret ballot, candidates vying for the chairperson position will take part in a televised debate dubbed MjadalaAfrika where they will be given the chance to outline their vision in front of a live broadcast.
The debate will allow African citizens and other stakeholders to put forward questions to the candidates on issues they want addressed on how to propel the continent's growth and ensure Africa achieves its goals for integrated and sustainable development and becoming a major player in the Global Arena.
Among the figures who could potentially be taking part in this debate is Raila Odinga of Kenya, who has previously served as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development. President William Ruto has reportedly been making the case for Odinga's nomination to various governments.
"This is not about our local issues. We must project the national interest for Kenya. It will be a first for Kenya and will be an opportunity for Kenya to offer leadership to the AU," said Musalia Mudavadi, Kenya's foreign affairs cabinet secretary, disclosing Kenya's support for Odinga in the AU bid.
Odinga, who served as Kenyan PM for five years beginning 2008, has garnered endorsements from a dozen African nations. He announced his intention to bid for the chairmanship in February, but the decision has come under widespread scrutiny, with many questioning where the 79-year-old Pan-Africanist has what it takes.
Fawzia Yusuf Adam, former deputy PM and foreign minister of Somalia, was also nominated but not endorsed. The same goes for Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, foreign minister of Djibouti. Vincent Meriton, former vice president of Seychelles, and Jakaya Kikwete, former Tanzanian president, are also seeking the AU chairmanship.
The diverse mix of nominees highlights the persistent struggle to achieve consensus in the Eastern African region, which rarely agrees on major decisions. At the February summit in Addis Ababa, member states vied for the AU Peace and Security Council positions, with East Africa having only two vacancies for a two-year term. Tanzania and Uganda sought a return to the Council.
Eritrea had also initially expressed interest, but eventually withdrew reportedly due to the sway held by Tanzania and Uganda, bolstered by their active involvement in peacekeeping efforts. Analysts observe this division within the region poses a huge obstacle to Odinga's candidacy, as achieving consensus at the center of such discord may prove challenging.
Continental priorities for the next AUC chairperson and the AUC as a whole include the implementation of the AU institutional reforms. President Ruto is currently the continental champion of the AU reforms, and this may give Odinga an upper hand, according to analysts.
The consecutive terms of Mousa Faki were rife with difficulties, as the continent dealt with a deadly pandemic, a string of coups, and armed conflict.
Africa has seen no less than nine successful coups since 2020, while a similar number of attempts at government overthrow have failed over the last four years. The developments are a sharp departure from the relative consistency of the previous two decades, and most of the coups are concentrated in the 'Coup Belt' of francophone West Africa. Mali (two coups in nine months), Niger (two in eight months), Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Gabon were all hit by the coup wave, but so were Chad and Sudan, which is in the midst of a deadly civil war.
The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) also remains in its nascency although the much-anticipated trade pact has been official since January 2021. Only a few countries have initiated trade under the scheme.
The question of greater international representation for Africa has also been a theme over the last few years, as African leaders, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), have pushed for reform that would grant Africa a permanent seat at the UN Security Council as well as more favorable terms in international financial agreements.
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Nonetheless, many pundits and analysts say a change in leadership will be very unlikely to translate into a revitalization for a stagnating AU.
Among them is Constantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), a former anti-graft commissioner at the AU.
"The election of new faces is not a guarantee to reform the AU and awaken the sleeping giant. The level of AU member states' commitment is also decisive. For instance, when a coup takes place in an African country, the AU decides to take strong action, but typically diplomats from that country move to block it," said Constantinos.
He argues the interest of African governments to remain un-democratized is weighing down on the AU and dragging any reform efforts.
"Most African leaders come to power using military strength. When there is a political movement in an African country, it is usually the military that seizes the opportunity and power. However, the country facing the coup often does not want the AU to condemn the coup. Hence, the AU issues statements that condemn unconstitutional change but the coup trend continues. Such scenarios that bar the AU from regulating the continent's politics, security, and economy have diminished the significance of the AU," said Constantinos.
He worries that a trend of forming regionalized blocs might also be undermining the AU.
"For instance, the Sahel region has already formed a new regional consortium. This consortium eventually might undermine the role and importance of the Union. In general, the AU must be revitalized to achieve its ultimate purpose," he said.
