As the impact of this illiberal autocracy extends beyond Rwanda's borders, its president knows he is a vital African chess piece in the global geopolitical circus.

Listen to this article 7 min Listen to this article 7 min Of all the elections in 2024, a candidate for least-surprising outcome is Rwanda. This month, in a result that will surprise precisely no one, strongman Paul Kagame secured five more years as president after taking more than 99% of the vote in an election that served to underscore his dominance over the east African nation.

There can be no clearer illustration of the sham that is Rwandan democracy. Two prominent opponents, Victoire Ingabire and Bernard Ntaganda, could not contest the presidential vote. Human rights groups have repeatedly said the Rwandan regime harasses and jails opponents and dissidents and that its agents have killed political opponents at home and abroad, something the Kagame government denies.

"Rwanda's opposition continue to face severe restrictions to their right to freedom of association, as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution on trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances," Amnesty International wrote recently.

International implications of this rogue, illegal actor

To his supporters, Kagame has brought development to Rwanda, a country of 13 million people, while creating a sense of identity from the aftermath of one of the most horrific genocides in history....