This unauthorised biography of Abiy Ahmed is a nuanced, unsparing examination of a leader trying to hold together a republic being undone by its imperial legacy.
Tom Gardner's The Abiy Project transcends a mere examination of Abiy Ahmed's influence over Ethiopia and his future ambitions, nor is it confined to critiquing his misguided "messianic mission".
Instead, it delves deeply into the making of Abiy himself. What forces moulded Abiy Ahmed? What socio-political context gave rise to his leadership? The book explores the distant past and recent events that have intricately shaped Abiy's character and leadership.
Gardner meticulously dissects the political history of modern Ethiopia, tracing power and ethnic dynamics from their origins to contemporary times. He investigates the era before Abiy's birth, illustrating the political landscape, key players, and the potential impacts on Abiy's childhood, including his very name. In a manner resembling observational psychoanalysis, Gardner examines Abiy's upbringing, identifying pivotal junctures in his early life. What influenced him the most? Was he affected by his ancestral lineage or subjected to alienation? What significant events occurred in the small town of Beshasha during his formative years?
Gardner's exploration is surprisingly resource-rich, bolstered by hundreds of interviews and a rigorous engagement with numerous academic sources. He not only elucidates how Abiy has accentuated the Ethiopian state's structural contradictions but also how these contradictions have, in turn, shaped Abiy. Thus, Abiy emerges as both the focal point and a peripheral element in this comprehensive narrative. It offers a nuanced understanding of Abiy as both a product and a shaper of his environment.
In his quest to explain the Abiy phenomonon, Gardner delves into the deepest valleys of Ethiopia's political history, untangling the intricate web of power and ethnic dynamics from the distant past to recent times. The narrative is rich and textured, offering insights not only into Abiy's life but also into the broader socio-political environment that shaped him. The author goes beyond merely addressing Abiy's biography; he contextualizes it within the larger framework of Ethiopia's tumultuous history.
The author's exegesis of the major events from the past decade, particularly from 2010 to the "reform" of 2018 and the subsequent years, is remarkably detailed and accurate. As someone intimately familiar with Ethiopian politics, I couldn't recall any significant event that was omitted from the book. These events were not merely included to maintain a chronological order; each one is accompanied by a thorough analysis by the author. This approach provides readers with a comprehensive macro view of the last decade's developments.
It is an understatement to say that this book is arguably the most detailed account of the period between 2010 and 2024. From popular protest to "reform" and from "reform" to a civil war, these years have been particularly eventful for Ethiopia, encapsulating a time when, as Lenin famously said, "there are weeks where decades happen". Recalling every major event, providing detailed analyses, and synthesizing them to portray the larger picture was undoubtedly a daunting task, yet Gardner has accomplished this with great skill.
The uniquely intimate insight that this book provides into some of the most pivotal moments of modern Ethiopia's political history, allows readers into the minds of key figures and into the heart of the political rollercoaster that has defined Ethiopia for over three decades. It is a must-read for every political analyst, activist, organiser, community leader or person otherwise invested through their time, energy and work in the complexity of Ethiopian political reality.
The Abiy Project does not do anybody any favours; rather, the read is sobering in affect. Even if the references made are disputed or inaccurate notably in their perspective of victim and perpetrators, to bear witness to over 30 years of carnage, in a chronicling that appears to have left few episodes unattended, is a journey that all of us - those intimately familiar with it, as well as those invested in the future of the people in Ethiopia - should experience.
Though there are a handful of references made to Ethiopia's history and the role its various interpretations have played in shaping its evolution, the text is not an introduction to understanding the state's origins, a story that holds different meaning for every group living within the country's borders.
One of the most disputed narratives surrounding Ethiopia is its relationship to the West. The popular version portrays the country as an ancient vanguard against colonialism. From the perspective of those in historic resistance to the state, the country's leadership across the ages has been a tool and beneficiary of Western imperialism. The Abiy Project provides generous attention to the role of both Western and Eastern foreign actors in the Ethiopian state, revealing truths that are starkly at odds with the narrative suggesting that Abiy's administration has ever taken a considerable stance against imperialism.
On the contrary, The Abiy Project portrays just how deeply seated the bid for foreign validation - paradoxically coupled with tropes of Ethiopian exceptionalism - is buried in Ethiopia's political culture. At the same time, Gardner astutely observes, the political motivations driving even the most seemingly benevolent gestures of the global North are invariably masques for whatever moral depravity it must perform to protect its long term geopolitical interests.
The book also provides a compelling testimony of how the Western diplomatic community consistently gets it wrong, highlighting the frequent flaws in its analyses. It reveals its reluctance to take advice from those on the ground and how swiftly logistical decisions are made - often when information is scanty or entirely absent - for regions such as western Oromia. Furthermore, Gardner astutely depicts the Western expatriates susceptibility to official lip service - as long as terms like "liberalism" and "democracy" are superficially invoked.
Almost all of the story focuses on the triangular relations of the three political heavyweights in Ethiopia, the Oromo, Amhara, and Tegaru, with sporadic reference to others, including the Qimant, Gedeo, Wolaita, Sidamo, Irob, and Somali, of which only the Somali picture was provided with some historical context. Although justifiable - these three groups are the most dominant political actors, especially as they relate to the story of Abiy Ahmed's political life - it must be said that understanding the contradictions and complexities of the state-building project in Ethiopia requires widening the scope considerably.
One example is the absence of the Agew-Amhara and Agew-Tegaru dynamics in Temban and Ofla in Tigray and Belesa, Abnat, and Lalibela in Amhara where Agew activists consider much of their society lost to the assimilative effects of both Amharaness and Tegaruness, or the 20 districts and more administered zonally by ethnic Agew in both Gojam and Lasta (known better as Wollo).
This oversight is consequential. The TDF, in many important battlefield moments during the Tigray Genocide, fought side by side with the then Agew Democratic Movement, even sharing one-third of all captured weaponry with ADM, with no expectation made of the ADM to do the same, a clear acknowledgment of Agew political sovereignty in their respective territories. In every nook and cranny of Ethiopia, there is a story within a story and a dynamic within a dynamic, which is important to understanding when wrestling with many of the questions The Abiy Question, directly and indirectly, poses regarding the future of the Ethiopian state.
As one political activist who has been engaged in political life as it pertains to Ethiopia for over a decade, and having been raised within the political culture of nationalism and resistance, this was not a comfortable book to read. I cannot say I [Soreti] didn't know, but I can say that consuming this information in the form of the narrative presented by The Abiy Project, even with my skepticism and biases, forced me to wonder if what I offer as approaches for political engagement and political thought will see actually drive change. My answer may very well be yes, but the text has struck deeply enough for me to question my own assumptions.
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The energy of Gardner's writing is infectious. Especially for those that will read the book with their own lived experiences colouring in the many moments the text explores, the storytelling practically creates a motion picture in your head.
As Ethiopia's national dialogue commission is currently ongoing, heavily criticised for being just another performative political stunt free of any real opposition to Abiy and his ruling party, even as the war in Oromia intensifies off the back of two failed negotiations and in the face of increasing state violence in the region; as Abiy seems to be simultaneously fighting and colluding with Amhara political and armed forces; as the question of transitional justice and freedom from occupation still hangs in the air for Tigray - this book will certainly trigger emotions. If it achieves only one thing, and is likely to resonate differently across the political spectrum, it will help us understand the mindset of the man at the helm of power in Ethiopia, answering questions so many have about his role in the crisis the country faces today.
Soreti B Kadir is a political activist, storyteller and facilitator. Eyasped Tesfaye is a political analyst with a focus on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. He's the co-founder and MDI of Horn Horizon Multimedia. He is currently, pursuing an MSc in Nationalism and Global Politics at the University of Edinburgh.
