The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), once a dominant force in Ethiopian politics, is now at a critical crossroads following the devastating Tigray War. This catastrophic conflict, which began in November 2020, has left the region in ruins and its people traumatized. As Tigray grapples with the aftermath of a devastating war, the TPLF faces an existential crisis, torn between competing visions for its future and that of the region it once governed. The struggle for narrative control, a vital aspect of this crisis, underscores the urgent and complex nature of the TPLF's predicament, which cannot be overstated, impressing upon the gravity of the situation.
This analysis draws on diverse sources and methods to provide a comprehensive picture of the TPLF's internal dynamics and challenges in post-war Tigray. Our thorough understanding of these dynamics is crucial as they not only shape the future of the TPLF but also have significant implications for the political landscape of Tigray and Ethiopia. Our research team, comprised of regional experts, political analysts, and conflict researchers, employed a rigorous mixed-methods approach. We conducted over 38 in-depth unstructured and open-ended interviews with current and former TPLF members, Tigrayan civil society leaders, and community representatives. These were complemented by extensive document analysis, including internal TPLF communications, public statements, and media reports.
Additionally, we reviewed social media discourse and engaged with hundreds of Tigrayans residing in Ethiopia and various nations across different demographics to gauge public sentiment. While the topic's sensitive nature necessitated some use of anonymous sources, particularly for internal TPLF matters, we have corroborated information across multiple sources wherever possible to ensure the highest level of accuracy.
Our findings reveal a stark division within the TPLF, primarily between the hardline Debretsion faction and the more conciliatory Getachew Reda faction. The TPLF's resilience in such challenges is a testament to its determination. This internal struggle, while significant, also presents opportunities for the future of Tigray, Ethiopia, and the broader Horn of Africa region. If seized, these opportunities could lead to positive changes and a brighter future, fostering a sense of optimism in the audience.
As Tigray embarks on its long and arduous journey towards recovery and reconciliation, the actions and internal struggles of the TPLF offer crucial insights into the challenges of post-war political renewal. The findings presented here are not just observations; they carry significant implications for the future of Tigray and Ethiopia and deepen our understanding of how political movements evolve in the aftermath of catastrophic events. Moreover, they serve as a critical warning to the international community about the potential for renewed conflict if certain factions within the TPLF are not held in check.
Background and Context
The TPLF, founded in 1975, played a pivotal role in overthrowing the Derg regime in 1991 and subsequently dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades. The party's influence was particularly significant in shaping the country's federal system and approach to ethnic federalism. However, the party's dominance began to wane following Abiy Ahmed's rise in 2018, culminating in the Tigray War that started in November 2020.
This war, marked by widespread violence against civilians, destruction of infrastructure, and allegations of war crimes, has had devastating consequences for the Tigrayan people. International observers and human rights organizations have described the events in Tigray as bearing hallmarks ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity and war crimes with reports of mass killings, sexual violence, and deliberate starvation. The involvement of Eritrean forces, invited by the Ethiopian federal government, added another layer of complexity and brutality to the war.
According to a 2024 report by the Tigray Research Commission, an estimated 1.2 million people were killed during the Tigray war, with approximately 450,000 women and girls subjected to sexual violence. While these figures have not been independently verified, they represent the most comprehensive attempt to quantify the devastating human cost of the conflict.
In November 2022, the Pretoria Agreement was signed to end the two-year catastrophic war between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF. This agreement, brokered by international mediators, provided a framework for the cessation of hostilities and a path towards peace and reconstruction. However, its implementation has been fraught with challenges, many of which stem from divisions within the TPLF itself. The agreement's provisions, particularly those related to the reintegration of TPLF members into local administrations, have been a point of contention within the party.
In this context, the TPLF - once claiming itself as the protector of Tigrayan interests - now faces existential questions about its role in the conflict and its ability to lead in its aftermath. The organization must contend with internal divisions, a deeply traumatized population, and the task of rebuilding a shattered region.
The Tigray War has fundamentally altered the political landscape of the region. The TPLF, which once enjoyed near-unanimous support among Tigrayans during the 17-year struggle against the Derg military regime, now faces skepticism and outright hostility from many of its former supporters. The scale of devastation and the perceived failures of the TPLF leadership have led many Tigrayans to question whether any single party or coalition can adequately address the region's challenges.
Factional Divides Within the TPLF
Our research reveals a deep and potentially irreconcilable divide within the TPLF, primarily between two major factions:
The Debretsion Faction:
This hardline faction, led by Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD), chairperson of the party, represents the TPLF's old guard. It comprises veterans who still adhere to the principles of revolutionary democracy and the developmental state model. Our findings indicate that this group is effectively seeking power realignment within Tigray and among regional actors.
Key characteristics of the Debretsion faction include:
- Resistance to fully implementing the Pretoria Agreement, viewing it as a threat to the TPLF's power structures.
- Obstruction of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) returns unless accompanied by the reinstatement of TPLF political structures and local administrations.
- A willingness to explore strategic realignments including potential cooperation with local and externa actors as a counterbalance to the Abiy Ahmed government. This approach, seen as a way to strengthen the TPLF's position in Tigray and at the national level, may have potential impact on regional geopolitical dynamics.
- Continued adherence to revolutionary democracy ideology, which they see as key to maintaining TPLF dominance in Tigray.
- Saving TPLF as a party is the top urgent priority before saving Tigray. They are uniquely characterized by party loyalty and priority before the strategic and existential matters of the entire Tigray people. Some members of this faction swear to uphold, defend and respect the TPLF internal documents before the bible and the Quran.
- This faction's sample space and subsets are believed to be the worst type of kakistocracy elements, referring to individuals considered the least competent or corrupt within a political system. This characterization underscores the challenges the TPLF faces in rebuilding its reputation and regaining the trust of the Tigrayan people.
Interviews with TPLF members aligned with this faction reveal a deep-seated belief that only by maintaining tight control over Tigray's political structures can they protect TPLF interests. However, this stance has put them at odds with many Tigrayans prioritizing peace and reconstruction over political dominance.
The Getachew Reda Faction:
Getachew Reda leads this faction and represents a more pragmatic and conciliatory approach. Our review shows that this group fundamentally accepts the Pretoria Agreement despite its imperfections and seeks to maintain peace at almost any cost.
Key characteristics of the Getachew Reda faction include:
- Prioritization of IDP returns and humanitarian aid, even if it means working closely with federal authorities.
- Willingness to compromise on some aspects of TPLF control for peace and stability.
- A more moderate stance towards the federal government, seeking dialogue and cooperation rather than confrontation.
- Recognition of the need for internal reform within the TPLF to regain credibility with the Tigrayan population.
- Willingness to work with other political, civic and other organizations in Tigray and political will to restrict government structure, mandates, and TPLF political operatives.
This faction, dominated and ignored by the TPLF hardliners, has some people capable of reading, understanding, analyzing, and predicting the contemporary geopolitical dynamism of the Horn of Africa and the world.
Various public media interviews with members of this faction reveal a pragmatic understanding of the TPLF's diminished position and the urgent needs of the Tigrayan people. They argue that the path to relevance addresses immediate humanitarian concerns rather than pursuing political goals.
Yet, the Getachew Reda faction has faced criticism for its shortcomings in providing effective leadership during this critical transition, notably its failure to establish its dominance and guarantee local security, casting doubts over the faction's ability to provide the bold, visionary leadership required to guide Tigray through this tumultuous period.
Crisis of Legitimacy
The TPLF faces a severe legitimacy crisis among the Tigrayan population. Our survey data shows a significant decline in trust in the TPLF, with many respondents expressing a desire for new leadership untainted by the recent conflict.
While it's widely acknowledged that the Abiy Ahmed regime, Eritrean forces, and certain Amhara elements bear significant responsibility for the devastation caused by the war in Tigray, our assessment reveals that a substantial portion of Tigrayans also hold the TPLF accountable for its role in the catastrophic Tigray War and its negative role before the war.
Of the hundreds of Tigrayan perspectives reviewed, assessed, and surveyed, many respondents express a need for a strongly reformed TPLF in collaboration with the entire Tigray stakeholder leadership to chart out the future of Tigray.
This erosion of legitimacy is further compounded by accusations of wartime misconduct and the perception that the TPLF's actions exacerbated the conflict. Many Tigrayans, while still harboring resentment towards the federal government and Eritrean forces, also hold the TPLF partially responsible for the suffering endured before, during and after the brutal war.
Struggle for Narrative Control
Both TPLF factions are engaged in a concerted effort to shape the narrative around the Tigray War and their roles within it. However, their approaches differ significantly:
The Debretsion faction continues to frame the war as a struggle for Tigrayan self-determination against an oppressive central government, often downplaying the TPLF's role in escalating hostilities. While still emphasizing Tigrayan suffering, the Getachew Reda faction is more willing to acknowledge the TPLF's mistakes, stringently appraise the TPLF leadership during the cunning war and focus on the need for reconciliation and reconstruction.
Both narratives face challenges. Domestically, they clash with the lived experiences of many Tigrayans who see the conflict more nuancedly. Internationally, while the TPLF has gained some sympathy for the plight of Tigrayans, it struggles to overcome its historical reputation and allegations of human rights abuses.
Implications for the Pretoria Agreement
The factional divide within the TPLF has significant implications for implementing the Pretoria Agreement. The Debretsion faction's resistance has slowed the disarmament process and complicated efforts to reintegrate Tigrayan forces into the national military. More alarming is that the Debretsion faction does not consider the Tigray military forces, commonly known as the TDF, as an institution but as a paramilitary wing to fulfil the faction's interests and stifle dissent voices within the party and across Tigray.
Contrasting with the Debretsion faction's more aggressive approach, the Getachew Reda faction's cooperative stance has facilitated some progress. This is particularly evident in humanitarian access and the gradual return of IDPs. The Reda faction's progressive understanding of the role of public and democratic institutions in fostering civilizations and wealth, starkly contrasts the Debretsion faction's more aggressive tactics.
These internal contradictions, have created confusion among international observers and aid organizations, complicating efforts to aid and monitor the peace process.
Broader Implications
The factional divides within the TPLF, its legitimacy crisis, and the struggle for narrative control have far-reaching implications for Tigray, Ethiopia, and the broader Horn of Africa region, which could significantly impact the region's stability and development.
Political Instability in Tigray: The internal divisions within the TPLF risk prolonging political instability in Tigray. The power struggle between the Debretsion and Getachew Reda factions creates a volatile political environment that could quickly reignite conflict. This instability threatens to delay crucial reconstruction efforts and complicate negotiations with the federal government.
Challenges to Reconciliation: The TPLF's crisis of legitimacy among Tigrayans presents a significant obstacle to meaningful reconciliation, both within Tigray and between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia. If either faction of the TPLF remains a dominant political force without addressing its credibility issues, it may impede the healing process and the restoration of trust between communities.
Regional Security Concerns: The potential realignment of the Debretsion faction with external actors poses severe regional security risks. Such a move could reignite conflict with the Ethiopian federal government and destabilize the fragile Horn of Africa region. The international community must be alert to this possibility and its potential consequences.
Humanitarian Crisis Prolongation: The obstruction of IDP returns by the Debretsion faction, currently in control of certain areas in Tigray, is not just a risk but a stark reality that is exacerbating the urgent humanitarian crisis in the region. The continued displacement is causing immense suffering and severely hampering the region's economic recovery and social stability. The situation demands immediate and decisive action to prevent further crisis escalation.
Erosion of Democratic Processes: While the internal power struggle within the TPLF is threatening, it also presents a potential for positive change. This struggle holds the potential to shape the development of democratic processes in Tigray, offering a beacon of hope amidst the challenges. It could lead to the Eritrean dictatorial or continuing TPLF/EPRDF authoritarian governance structure. Still, it also presents genuine political reform opportunities that we should eagerly anticipate and support, bringing hope for a brighter future in Tigray.
International Aid Complications: International aid organizations and donors are urged to clarify the conflicting narratives and actions of the TPLF factions. Ambiguity could lead to hesitation in providing much-needed assistance, potentially exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Tigray. Clear and decisive action is not just necessary; it's essential in this situation and will significantly impact the crisis resolution.
Threat of Renewed Conflict: Perhaps most alarmingly, the Debretsion faction's hardline stance, combined with its willingness to explore new alignments, poses a real threat of renewed conflict. This potential for another devastating war, with the involvement of external forces, could lead to further loss of life, displacement, and economic devastation, making it a significant concern for regional stakeholders and the international community. The involvement of external forces could escalate the conflict to a regional level, with potentially catastrophic consequences such as increased refugee flows, destabilization of neighbouring countries, and a prolonged humanitarian crisis.
Recommendations
Based on our findings, we propose the following recommendations for addressing the challenges facing Tigray and promoting stability in the region:
1. Inclusive Dialogue and Governance:
It is crucial to recognize that after the Tigray war, the challenges facing Tigray can never be resolved by any single party or coalition of parties. Instead, all Tigray people from all walks of life and social strata must be engaged. We recommend:
- Establishing a broad-based transitional council that includes representatives from various political parties, civil society organizations, religious leaders, and community elders.
- Organizing town hall meetings and public forums across Tigray to allow citizens to voice their concerns and contribute to the region's future planning.
- Developing a new, inclusive political framework that goes beyond traditional party structures and reflects the diverse needs and aspirations of all Tigrayans. This framework could involve power-sharing arrangements, proportional representation, and mechanisms for ensuring the participation of marginalized groups in decision-making processes.
2. International Oversight and Mediation:
The international community should take an active role in overseeing the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and mediating between various factions. This includes:
- Establishing a robust monitoring mechanism to ensure compliance with the agreement's terms.
- Providing neutral mediation services to facilitate dialogue between TPLF factions, other Tigrayan political entities, and the federal government.
- Issuing clear warnings, backed by credible threats of sanctions, to any factions that threaten to reignite conflict.
3. Prioritize Humanitarian Aid and IDP Returns:
Urgent action is needed to address the humanitarian crisis and facilitate the safe return of IDPs. We recommend:
- Pressuring all parties, especially the Debretsion faction, to remove obstacles to IDP returns and humanitarian aid distribution.
- Refrain from the organized looting of humanitarian aid, minerals, metals and Tigray treasuries.
- Providing international support and protection for returning IDPs to ensure their safety and well-being.
- Implementing community-based reconciliation programs to ease tensions and facilitate reintegration.
4. Accountability and Transitional Justice:
A comprehensive transitional justice process is essential to address the legitimacy crisis and promote healing. This should include:
- Establishing an independent truth and reconciliation commission led by an international community-appointed organ to investigate atrocities committed during the Tigray war.
- Ensuring that all parties, including TPLF leaders, are held accountable for any war crimes or human rights abuses.
- Restorative justice programs at the community level should be implemented to promote healing and reconciliation.
5. Economic Reconstruction and Development:
A massive, coordinated effort is needed to rebuild Tigray's shattered economy and infrastructure. We recommend:
- Creating an international donor conference specifically focused on Tigray's reconstruction needs.
- Implementing transparency mechanisms to ensure aid and development funds are used effectively and reach intended beneficiaries.
- Prioritizing projects that provide immediate employment opportunities for Tigrayans, particularly returning IDPs and former combatants.
6. Radical Political Reform within the TPLF:
While recognizing that the TPLF's influence has diminished to zero, it remains a significant political force in Tigray. For the sake of regional stability, the TPLF should be encouraged to:
- Undergo a merciless retrospective and introspective self-assessment and transparent internal reform process, including leadership changes and ideological reassessment.
- Publicly acknowledge its deleterious role on the entire Tigray people before, during and after the vicious Tigray war and commit to a policy of non-violence and democratic participation.
- Cooperate fully with transitional justice mechanisms and encourage its members to do the same.
7. Regional Diplomatic Initiatives:
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To address the complex regional dynamics, including the potential for dangerous realignments, we recommend:
- Organizing a regional peace conference involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and other Horn of Africa nations to address underlying tensions and promote stability.
- Encouraging the African Union to take a more active role in mediating regional disputes and promoting cooperation.
- Developing economic incentives for regional cooperation to disincentivize conflict and promote shared prosperity.
Conclusion
The war's aftermath presents challenges and critical opportunities for Tigray and the broader region. The factional divides within the TPLF and the immense suffering endured by the Tigrayan people necessitate a fundamental reimagining of governance and reconciliation in the area.
The TPLF's legitimacy crisis presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While it complicates efforts at reconciliation and rebuilding, it also opens the door for more inclusive and representative governance structures. The Tigrayans' desire for new leadership and more diverse political voices must be heeded if the region moves beyond the cycle of conflict and authoritarianism. To this end, a more honest and nuanced accounting of the conflict, including acknowledging mistakes and atrocities by all sides, is essential for genuine healing and preventing future conflicts.
The implications of the TPLF's internal divisions extend far beyond Tigray's borders. The potential for renewed conflict, exacerbated by possible realignments with former adversaries, poses a significant threat to regional stability. The international community must remain vigilant and engaged, recognizing these risks while supporting genuine efforts at peace and reconstruction.
The humanitarian crisis in Tigray demands urgent and sustained attention. Obstruction of IDP returns and the politicization of aid distribution not only prolong suffering but also undermine the foundations for lasting peace. All parties, particularly the Debretsion faction of the TPLF, must prioritize the immediate needs of the Tigrayan people over political maneuvering.
Tigray's path to stability and prosperity requires a multifaceted approach. Inclusive dialogue and governance structures must replace the old model of single-party dominance. International oversight and mediation will be crucial in navigating the complex political landscape and ensuring compliance with peace agreements. A comprehensive transitional justice process and economic reconstruction efforts can help address the conflict's physical and emotional scars.
The TPLF itself stands at a crossroads. Its ability to reform internally, acknowledge past mistakes, and adapt to the new realities of post-war Tigray will largely determine its relevance and legitimacy moving forward. The more progressive elements within the organization, as represented by the Getachew Reda faction, offer a potential bridge between the TPLF's historical role and the need for new approaches in a changed landscape.
Ultimately, Tigray's future depends on the ability of all stakeholders--political factions, civil society, religious leaders, and the international community--to work together in pursuit of lasting peace and inclusive development. The echoes of Mekelle must serve as a constant reminder of the costs of conflict and the imperative of just and sustainable peace.
The road ahead for Tigray is undoubtedly challenging, but not without hope. By addressing the root causes of conflict, fostering inclusive governance, and prioritizing the needs of the Tigrayan people, it is possible to build a more stable and prosperous future. The international community is crucial in supporting this process, providing resources, expertise, and diplomatic support.
As Tigray begins its journey towards healing, the choices made by political leaders, civil society, and international partners will shape the prospects for lasting peace and prosperity in this troubled region. The factional divides within the TPLF are a microcosm of Tigray and Ethiopia's broader challenges. Overcoming these divisions and building a more inclusive political system is desirable and essential for the region's future.
In conclusion, the post-war landscape in Tigray presents both perils and possibilities. The internal struggles of the TPLF, while potentially destabilizing, also offer an opportunity for meaningful political reform and reconciliation. By learning from the past, embracing inclusive dialogue, and prioritizing the needs of the Tigrayan people, it is possible to transform the echoes of conflict into a symphony of peace and progress. The international community, regional partners, and local stakeholders must work together to seize this critical moment and help Tigray chart a new course towards stability, justice, and sustainable development. AS
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this Op-ed are strictly of the author and do not necessarily reflect AS' editorial stands.
The author, Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, is an independent researcher affiliated with the University of Kwazulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa having previously worked as Vice President For Administrations and Student Affairs at Aksum University 2011-2014. He can be reached at addeyagoza@yahoo.com
