South Africa: Relief in Sight As Annual Consumer Inflation Slows to Three-Year Low of 4.6 Percent in July, Rate Cut Looms

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South Africa's consumer price index slowed significantly in July to 4.6% year-on-year, a three-year low, from 5.1% in June. In a hopeful sign, food inflation braked to a 4½ year low of 3.9%. This should seal the case for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to start cutting rates next month.

The South African Reserve Bank will feel vindicated in its monetary policy stance as consumer inflation in July finally subsided to the midpoint of its 3% to 6% target range, paving the way for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points when the bank's Monetary Policy Committee next meets in September.

At 4.6% in July, the consumer price index was at its lowest level since July of 2021 and ebbed significantly from 5.1% in June.

Leading the way was food inflation, which has been eating into the incomes of poor as well as middle-class households, fuelling a cost-of-living crisis. It slowed to 3.9% on an annual basis in July from 4.1% in June, its lowest level since January 2020.

"While overall food inflation has slowed, bread and cereals is showing upward momentum. The category recorded an annual increase of 5.6% in July, up from June's 5.2%," Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said.

If you happen to like pizza, in July you were paying 11.6% more for your fix than you were in July 2023.

"On a positive note, bread flour, cake flour, pasta and macaroni are...

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