Tanzania's president began her term by tackling repression - but as elections loom, a dark side is starting to show.
After introducing numerous reforms during her first three years in office, Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan is finding it difficult to sustain them.
Through her much-publicised 4Rs agenda of Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform and Rebuild, she has reversed many of her predecessor's repressive policies. But recent incidents, including abductions and disappearances of dissidents, arrests of opposition figures and increased police brutality, suggest that Samia may be retreating from these progressive reforms.
As Tanzania enters election season, it seems Samia, who assumed power after former president John Magufuli died in 2021, is fast resorting to the repressive tactics reminiscent of her predecessor. Could internal party pressure and a resurgence of the political opposition be to blame?
Over the past three years, she has replaced the intelligence chief three times; this year alone, she has reshuffled the cabinet four times. In the latest changes, on 14 August, Samia brought back two veteran politicians who served under Magufuli. Palamagamba Kabudi was appointed Constitutional and Legal Affairs Minister and William Lukuvi as State Minister in the Prime Minister's Office. Kabudi, one of Magufuli's most trusted confidants, supported his resource nationalism agenda by renegotiating mining contracts with big multinationals.
These appointments show the president is keen to survive politically by winning over central figures in the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), and positioning herself ahead of the 2025 general elections. While Samia has often cited ineptitude as the reason for her periodic tinkering with party and government positions, it is now apparent that she has set her sights on victory in next year's polls.
Last month she dismissed January Makamba and Nape Nnauye, the foreign and information ministers respectively. She had returned them to the fold in 2022 after their dismissal from the Cabinet by Magufuli. Also last month, she accepted the resignation of longtime party stalwart and CCM Vice-Chairman Abdulrahman Kinana. Kinana, Nape and Makamba were the architects of Magufuli's 2015 electoral win.
Makamba is seen as a future CCM presidential candidate, so Samia could be quelling his political ambitions. The removal of Nnauye, a controversial minister, came a week after he was videoed intimating that the elections would be rigged. While Kinana's departure wasn't attributed to the purges, Samia could be looking to the Magufuli script, which saw him sideline all three.
These high-profile changes in both the government and the CCM could be interpreted in two ways. First, as efforts to counter perceived disloyalty in a section of the party that may want to undermine or sabotage Samia ahead of the elections.
Since coming to office, she has had to carefully navigate different party factions and simultaneously rein in ministers such as Makamba, who were eyeing the presidency. Factional struggles within CCM ahead of the 2015 polls caused deep divisions. After Magufuli was elected, he manipulated party institutions, centralised power through populist rhetoric and marginalised those who opposed him. In effect, he created a cabal of trusted loyalists who built a new power base within the party.
After initially sidelining many of the so-called Magufuli loyalists, Samia has slowly reintegrated them to win their favour ahead of November's local elections and next year's general elections.
Having inherited the seat on the back of Magufuli's death, the local election will be the first measure of her performance. Samia will be keen to stamp her authority and win legitimacy in the November polls, which are traditionally regarded as indicators for the general elections.
Other appointments by Samia have also been seen as an attempt to crack down on dissent within the ruling party and the political opposition. In September 2023, she promoted Doto Biteko, a key Magufuli ally, to Deputy Prime Minister. Also last year, she reinstated Paul Makonda, the former Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner, as the party's Ideology and Publicity Secretary. Makonda is an eccentric and polarising figure accused of gross human rights violations.
It's no coincidence that the return of such individuals has aligned with a reversal of Samia's progressive reforms. Makonda's appointment coincided with a public outcry against the controversial port deal between the Dubai-based DP World and the Tanzanian government. DP World, which operates along the East African coast, was granted a 30-year contract to manage the port of Dar es Salaam.
Those who criticised the deal as disadvantaging Tanzania were threatened or arrested. Makonda's return was meant to appease these dissenters. It has also raised questions about Samia's commitment to sustained reforms.
That raises the second explanation for the shuffling of senior government and party officials. Samia is responding to a re-energised political opposition, and in doing so, she has backtracked on the progressive reforms she instituted after taking office.
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Since the unconstitutional ban on public rallies for (mainly opposition) political parties was lifted in January 2023, the opposition has been actively campaigning and critiquing her government and reform credentials. The main opposition, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), has argued that the reforms are not genuine, pointing in particular to the government's reluctance to adopt a new Constitution.
Samia's government has also been slammed for its eviction of the pastoral Maasai people from their ancestral home of Ngorongoro in northern Tanzania. The government has arrested and detained critics while enforcing the evictions.
On the one hand, Samia has presented herself as a reformist seeking a clear departure from the past and focusing on reconciliation and restoring Tanzania's democratic space. On the other, she and the CCM are wary of the opposition's strength, which has grown after being completely suppressed under Magufuli.
As the elections draw closer, state repression will continue. A resurgent opposition and a paranoid CCM will push Samia towards increased repression - the likes of which were seen during the reign of her predecessor.
Nicodemus Minde, Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Nairobi
