African countries' bilateral deals with China should be clearly aligned with the continent's development goals.
The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has been a cornerstone of Africa-China relations since its inception in 2000. But the ninth summit in Beijing from 4 to 6 September 2024 takes place amid rising geopolitical tensions that will see China prioritise its position in relation to other world powers.
At this summit, African countries need to rethink the future direction of the partnership. If approached correctly, FOCAC could foster a new era of cooperation that is both sustainable and mutually beneficial.
The forum facilitates discussions, agreements and cooperative projects between China and African nations. It is the primary mechanism for major policy coordination, and convenes every three years. Historically, FOCAC has yielded notable financial commitments: the 2021 summit saw a US$40 billion pledge spanning infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing.
Research suggests that FOCAC's institutional mechanisms have been conducive to project implementation, with US$155 billion of the US$191 billion total promised loans between 2006 and 2021 implemented by October 2021. But the lack of transparency in agreements and diverse financing mechanisms make outcomes hard to measure.
At China's third plenum in July, the Communist Party unveiled significant market-oriented reforms. These continued President Xi Jinping's shift from high-speed to high-quality development to ensure more sustainable and balanced economic growth - a strategy outlined since 2017.
This was reiterated in recent preparatory discussions for the upcoming FOCAC summit, signalling a focus on economic viability, local community benefits and environmental sustainability. Market-oriented reforms are also expected to accelerate the trend observed at the 2021 Dakar summit, moving from state-led initiatives to greater private sector involvement.
This year's summit occurs in the context of growing resistance to China from a United States-led coalition. In response, China is intensifying its efforts to strengthen ties with the Global South, viewing these relationships not just as economic opportunities but as crucial elements of an emerging global political force.
The 2024 summit, themed 'Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future', reflects this focus. It aims to deepen China-Africa relations in a way that aligns with China's broader geopolitical goals.
Where does this leave Africa? The continent's economic significance to China's growth is increasingly being matched, if not surpassed, by Africa's geopolitical importance. Strong economic ties enable Beijing to gain African support in international forums, which can help China influence global diplomacy and security. This support is vital as Beijing attempts to reshape what it views as a skewed world order.
However, FOCAC investments - which often serve China's geopolitical and strategic interests - can pose challenges when they don't align with recipient countries' needs and development priorities. China's growing influence in African politics has raised concerns, as has the economic impact of FOCAC-funded projects.
The high debt burdens associated with these investments highlight the need for scrutiny to protect Africa's sovereignty and financial stability. Despite shrinking deal sizes, debt sustainability remains problematic for many African nations. Since 2006, FOCAC has been the primary channel for Chinese loans to Africa, totalling US$191 billion in pledged lending from 2006-21. There are also concerns that some projects may inadvertently deepen inequalities in African countries by not adequately addressing local socio-economic needs.
African countries must prioritise their economic requirements and focus on moving up the value chain. While FOCAC has provided valuable development finance, infrastructure and trade opportunities, African countries must collectively avoid becoming overburdened with debt and unnecessary projects. By aligning around common priorities, they can use FOCAC to support value chain advancement and sustainable growth.
FOCAC operates as a multilateral framework but often involves bilateral negotiations. This reflects China's preference for direct control and quick returns, and Africa's desire for tailored terms and faster results.
Analysts have long recommended a unified African presence at FOCAC to achieve more effective outcomes. But African countries often enter negotiations alone, without a cohesive strategy. In contrast, China has outlined its objectives in the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035. In the short term, bilateral engagements should align closely with the African Union's Agenda 2063, which focuses on inclusive growth, sustainable development, regional integration, and peace and security.
African governments should not wait for FOCAC to set the agenda - by then, it's often too late. The summit is the culmination of several preparatory meetings, where outcomes are largely shaped beforehand. So, while African countries should strive to secure favourable terms at the summit, the event can also serve as a fail-safe to reject projects that don't align with continental goals.
To maximise the impact of FOCAC investments, African countries must align their efforts with Agenda 2063. While FOCAC supports these goals rhetorically, African nations must ensure their bilateral agreements with China align with continental frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and regional infrastructure projects.
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This alignment is crucial, especially as the private sector plays a growing role in these deals, which could lead to fragmented development efforts. By coordinating with Agenda 2063 and promoting a unified market, African countries can integrate Chinese investment with their long-term priorities and strengthen economic resilience.
This year's summit also has a new format, with discussions organised around thematic committees co-chaired by China and an African country. This allows collaboration among African negotiators on region-specific priorities, enabling regional economic communities to band together on common challenges.
As global divisions deepen and major powers compete for influence - including through initiatives like the G7's Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment and the EU's Global Gateway - Africa's funding landscape is evolving. To reap the benefits, African countries must maintain their strategic independence to leverage these opportunities.
FOCAC's success will depend on its ability to adapt to shifting global dynamics while meeting Africa's needs. As China seeks to bolster its influence worldwide and Africa leverages its growing economic significance, the pursuit of sustainability and mutual benefit could transform FOCAC into a beacon of effective international cooperation.
Jana de Kluiver, Research Officer, Africa in the World
