Addis Abeba — In a significant stride towards bolstering Ethiopia's energy independence, a pivotal development emerged from a place called Guba, which is located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State late last week.
In a televised address on 24 August 2024, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed heralded the successful activation of the third and fourth turbines of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The activation of two additional turbines last week, each with a capacity of 400 MW, has augmented the dam's power generation capacity, raising its total installed capacity to 1,550 MW.
Located on the Blue Nile River, GERD is designed to have a total installed capacity of 5,150 MW when fully completed.
Construction on GERD commenced in April 2011, and the project's reservoir is anticipated to reach its planned capacity of 74 billion cubic meters.
As stated by Prime Minister Abiy on his official Facebook page, the dam currently holds 60 billion cubic meters of water and is expected to reach 71 billion by December 2024, enabling the activation of three additional turbines. This will bring the total number of functional turbines to seven.
Prime Minister Abiy noted that, in addition to the uninterrupted flow of the river, the dam's spillways have been opened, releasing an additional 2,800 cubic meters of water per second.
Ethiopian authorities also emphasize that more positive developments have emerged from Guba for the lower Nile basin countries, in particular, for Sudan and Egypt.
"GERD plays a crucial role in managing water flow, mitigating flood risks, and ensuring that downstream nations receive a steady supply of water, particularly during droughts," the Premier Abiy noted.
The activation of the third and fourth turbines of the GERD followed closely on the heels of another significant development concerning the Nile River: the ratification of the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) by the fifth upper stream country.
In July 2024, South Sudan's parliament ratified the CFA, joining Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Burundi in endorsing this agreement.
The CFA establishes the rights and obligations for the development of the Nile Basin's water resources and promotes the equitable and reasonable utilization of the river.
Ethiopia has played a pivotal role in the creation of the CFA, primarily due to its opposition to the colonial-era treaties signed by Egypt and Sudan in 1929 and 1959. These treaties, which heavily favor Egypt and Sudan, have not been recognized by other countries in the Nile basin. Ethiopia in particular has strongly contested these agreements.
For the CFA to come into full effect and lead to the establishment of the Nile Basin Commission, a minimum of six countries out of the total 11 must ratify the agreement.
Gashaw Ayferam (PhD), a researcher in water politics, anticipates that the primary motivation for countries that have not yet signed the CFA is to secure the most favorable benefits for themselves.
"Given their limited advantages under the colonial agreements, these countries are likely to seek a more equitable distribution of resources," Gashaw asserts.
A country like Ethiopia, with its substantial water resources, should not have to beg its neighbors to join a cooperation framework." Gashaw Ayferam (PhD), a researcher in water politics
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Abiy highlighted the significance of South Sudan's ratification, emphasizing that it represents a crucial step towards regional cooperation in the Nile Basin.
The Premier further highlighted, "This diplomatic milestone marks a significant step in our collective aspiration for regional cooperation in the Nile Basin."
"The ratification will provide impetus for working towards the common good of our people through the establishment of the Nile Basin Commission," he added.
While the CFA holds the potential for benefits, experts remain divided on the specific advantages it will offer to Ethiopia and the other upstream countries.
Some experts argue that the formation of a formal institution and the establishment of a legal framework are crucial for ensuring equitable water sharing among the Nile basin countries.
One of these experts, Asrat Berhanu, a hydrology expert, asserts that implementing the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) will benefit Ethiopia and represent a significant setback for Egypt, which has long maintained a unilateral claim over the Nile.
"The progress observed in the dam's construction demonstrates Ethiopia's commitment to regional cooperation and the development rights of upstream countries," he emphasizes.
Gashaw, the researcher in water policy, offers a differing viewpoint.
He contends that Ethiopia, as the primary source of the Nile River, should not be compelled to seek a cooperation agreement.
Gashaw cites examples such as Turkey and China, where the lower basin countries have initiated cooperation rather than the nations that produce the water.
"A country like Ethiopia, with its substantial water resources, should not have to beg its neighbors to join a cooperation framework," Gashaw asserts. "Instead, it should insist on the establishment of a formal institution and legal framework."
Gashaw also underscores the inherent contradictions within the Nile Basin Cooperation Framework, particularly between the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization of water and the obligation to avoid causing significant harm to downstream countries.
He contends that these conflicting principles have been inadequately reconciled, potentially leading to future tensions.
Gashaw further observes that both Ethiopia and Egypt have failed to ratify the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, a treaty that many nations, including Turkey and China, have rejected due to its perceived limitations on their development potential.
While he acknowledges that the principle of equitable and reasonable use of water could be advantageous for Ethiopia, Gashaw expresses concern that the framework may use the country's current water usage as a baseline, thereby potentially restricting its future development.
Egypt's potential next moves
In addition to advocating for more upstream countries to endorse the CFA, Ethiopia has been engaged in negotiations with Sudan and Egypt regarding the use and management of the GERD.
Although these negotiations were temporarily interrupted, they resumed in July 2023, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi met in Cairo and agreed to finalize the agreement on the first filling and annual operation of the GERD within four months.
However, despite four rounds of talks--two in Cairo and two in Addis Ababa--the anticipated resolution was not achieved.
The situation deteriorated further when Egypt announced its withdrawal from the GERD negotiations, accusing Ethiopia of a "persistent refusal to accept any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the interests of all three countries."
However, the interruption of negotiations among the three countries did not hinder Ethiopia from continuing its efforts to expand its power generation capacity.
The recent announcement of the successful activation of two additional turbines at the GERD serves as a testament to Ethiopia's progress toward achieving one of its major ambitious energy goals.
Gashaw explained that as the filling of the dam progresses, the pressure on Ethiopia diminishes, and the international community becomes more likely to acknowledge the normal flow of water.
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He argued that the primary concerns lie with the downstream countries, particularly Egypt, given their related apprehensions.
Gashaw also expresses optimism that as the water filling process concludes, the contentious issues surrounding the dam will diminish.
He believes that the continued filling will have positive effects, including reduced flooding, increased irrigation, decreased human and social risks associated with flooding, and enhanced electricity generation capacity for hydropower dams.
To uphold its rights under the 1959 Treaty of Right of Way, some experts suggest that Egypt may pursue a strategy of increased engagement with neighboring countries. This could involve strengthening military agreements with Sudan, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya, and Burundi, as well as establishing military bases in these regions.
Other scholars also argue that Egypt might seek to diplomatically isolate Ethiopia and hinder its access to international support. They emphasize that propaganda campaigns and efforts to portray Egypt positively within the international community could be integral to this strategy.
Gashaw suggests that Egypt's efforts to destabilize Sudan and its involvement in conflicts with Ethiopia and Somaliland exemplify its potential strategies to maintain its position.
"Egypt may attempt to isolate Ethiopia diplomatically, leveraging its larger size and closer proximity to other neighboring countries," he argues. "This could involve strategies such as blockades or military threats."
Gashaw further cautions that Egypt might resort to cyber attacks or even direct military action if the opportunity arises. "Such actions could destabilize the region and divert Ethiopia's resources away from water development," he concludes.
