Addis Abeba — The Pretoria Agreement, a crucial accord designed to end the genocidal war in the Tigray region, has become a source of contention, marked by confusion and controversy. This article explores the significant problems that have arisen since the agreement, the underlying causes of the crisis, and potential pathways to a lasting resolution.
The Pretoria Agreement and Its Aftermath
In November 2022, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) signed the Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to halt the devastating genocidal war that had afflicted Tigray for two years. The agreement sought to establish a ceasefire and address critical issues such as territorial integrity, the return of displaced individuals, humanitarian access, human rights, and political representation.
However, subsequent actions by the Ethiopian government have cast doubt on its commitment to the agreement. The government's failure to reinstate the TPLF's registration starkly contradicts the Pretoria Agreement, which had acknowledged the TPLF as a legitimate negotiating party. Furthermore, the Ethiopian government has repeatedly called for a referendum, despite the Pretoria Agreement and the subsequent Nairobi Declaration's provision to return Tigray's territories to the status quo ante.
Following the Pretoria Agreement, the Ethiopian government appointed the leader of the Interim Regional Administration in Tigray, who is also a top leader within the TPLF. Additionally, the Interim Regional Administration is predominantly composed of TPLF members. This move raises questions about the government's sincerity in implementing the agreement, as it appears to be an attempt to balance and pit political interests against one another.
Institutional Conflicts and Divisions
The Ethiopian government's handling of the Pretoria Agreement, combined with the desire for political power and lingering animosities between the TPLF and the Tigray Interim Regional Administration's leaders, has led to notable institutional conflicts and divisions. These actions have created a rift between the institutions, the TPLF, and the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA). Although most members of the TIRA are also part of the TPLF, their different designations, along with the rift between the so-called Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD) and Getachew Reda factions, have led to a lack of clarity and consistency in executing the agreement's provisions.
The Ethiopian government's focus on re-registration rather than the re-institution of the TPLF highlights a superficial approach to resolving deeper issues. This bureaucratic measure appears to be a token gesture rather than a genuine effort to integrate the TPLF into the political framework, despite its status as a signatory to the agreement.
Internal and External Challenges
The situation in Tigray is further complicated by both internal and external challenges. The TPLF held a congress prematurely, disregarding the 21-day implementation period specified in the re-registration document. Following this, the Ethiopian government announced that the TPLF had nullified the Pretoria Agreement. This raises concerns about the commitment of both parties to the peaceful existence of Tigray's people.
Additionally, the Ethiopian government's declaration that the Pretoria Agreement has been nullified, combined with its failure to implement the agreement's terms, poses the threat of renewed genocidal war and continued humanitarian crises. This ongoing hostility underscores the government's reluctance to fully commit to the agreement's objectives. It should also be noted that the Ethiopian government has not made significant progress in terms of implementing the Pretoria Agreement and its ensuing Declaration in Nairobi.
Key Issues at Stake
Several crucial issues lie at the heart of the current crisis. The territorial integrity of Tigray remains under threat due to the ongoing, forceful, and unconstitutional occupation by Amhara and Eritrean forces. Although the Pretoria Agreement included provisions to safeguard Tigray's territorial integrity, the Ethiopian government's statement that the agreement has been nullified because the TPLF held a congress puts this provision at risk. There has not been much meaningful progress thus far. In fact, as stated above, the Ethiopian government has repeatedly called for a referendum to resolve territories held by Amhara, in direct opposition to the Pretoria Agreement and the Declaration in Nairobi.
The genocidal war has displaced a significant number of people from Tigray. Ensuring their safe and dignified return is a priority outlined in the Pretoria Agreement, but the potential nullification of the agreement and the calls for a referendum cast doubt on the feasibility of this provision.
Implementing a ceasefire and ensuring humanitarian access are vital for alleviating the suffering of affected Tigrayans. Actions undermining the Pretoria Agreement jeopardize these critical aspects, putting security at risk.
Path to Resolution
Addressing the ongoing crisis requires a comprehensive approach. Establishing an inclusive and technocratic government in Tigray that represents all Tigrayan stakeholders is crucial for effectively implementing the Pretoria Agreement and the Declaration in Nairobi. It will also ensure the well-being of Tigrayans. Such a government would need to address Tigray's immediate needs and build a foundation for long-term stability through genuine inclusivity.
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The Ethiopian government must demonstrate a true commitment to implementing the terms of the Pretoria Agreement, moving beyond superficial measures to address the core issues at stake. This includes ensuring territorial integrity, the return of displaced individuals, humanitarian access, respect for human rights, political representation, and the continuation of the ceasefire.
The international community plays a pivotal role in pressuring Ethiopia to adhere to the Pretoria Agreement. Diplomatic pressure can help ensure that the government remains committed to resolving the continued crisis in Tigray.
In conclusion, the political crisis in the wake of the Pretoria Agreement highlights the urgent need for the effective implementation of the agreement. Achieving this resolution requires a commitment to inclusivity, adherence to agreements, and robust international pressure.
Batseba Kassahun holds a Master of Public Administration from New York University and is currently pursuing a PhD in Public Administration and Policy. With over a decade of experience in public service, she has led the Black Students Union at North Seattle College, designed and implemented e-learning programs focused on Peace and Security in Africa, and served as a Country Manager for an Irish social enterprise.
