The recent tension between Ethiopia and Somalia becomes the focal point in the most volatile and dynamic region in the world. Colluding with the regional countries, other forces have been pushing harder and fueling the dispute upping the ante.
What is behind the current tension of the Horn?
After around three decades long wait, Ethiopia has started to call for mutual approach with its neighbors for accessing the sea. The long awaited wish to access the sea genuinely has come to fruition when Somaliland accepted Addis Ababa's call for mutual benefit. Since the accord s inked between the two sides, Somalia has boldly refused to accept Ethiopia's move and tensions became tighter than before.
As one of the major players in the continental issues, Ethiopia has also been leading the region as well. The Horn of Africa is well known for its unrest and volatile features, and many actors are involved in the process. However, no country or actor did anything compared to Ethiopia's commitment towards the region.
Ethiopia has been sacrificing its sons and daughters for the well- being of the region. Again, it has been the frontrunner regarding any issues of the region. The best example could be nation's move to fight terrorism and support nations to stand on their feet as sovereign nations.
Accordingly, Professor Brook Hailu, a Political Science and International Relations expert, admitted Ethiopia's commitment to the region. He noted that Ethiopia's contributions to Somalia's peace are often overlooked. Ethiopian troops have been on the front lines against Al-Shabaab and have built essential infrastructure in Somalia.
After fighting and warding one of the terrorist groups in the Horn off, Ethiopia was the first nation that contributes and sends thousands of its Soldiers for Peace keeping Mission in Somalia under African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
Prof. Brook also elaborated that Ethiopian forces were active in Somalia even before AMISOM took over. Once AMISOM was deployed, Ethiopia took on the most challenging roles, fighting Al-Shabaab effectively. Ethiopian troops have also supported local communities by building schools, roads, and health facilities, going beyond their military duties. These contributions are documented in United Nations reports.
The burning issue now
After the accord between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the move that Somalia took made thing even harder when the later started to allow other powers, even some are arch enemies of Ethiopia, in to the stepping into the regional scenario. Keeping adding more actors who have their own hoarded agendas in the dispute is one of the alarming moves that exacerbate the whole fume.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister, Ambassador Taye Atskeselassie, voiced concerns about a possible "collusion" between the Somali government and external forces, which could threaten regional stability. Despite Ethiopia's significant efforts to stabilize Somalia, recent moves by the Somali government to align more closely with foreign actors have increased tensions. Ethiopia feels sidelined and fears these developments could reverse its achievements in the region.
Ethiopia's concerns are tied to Somalia's fragile security situation, where renewed militant activity could undo years of progress against terrorism.
However, Somalia's recent actions, including its closer tie with Egypt-a country with a contentious history with Ethiopia-pose a significant threat to Ethiopia's national interests. Prof. Brook suggests that the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and other regional bodies should mediate this dispute, and Ethiopia remains open to dialogue.
Further, the Republic of Somalia has decided to replace Ethiopian Soldiers with other forces without acknowledging the whole favor those military forces did to them. The upcoming Post- ATMIS mission that will be effective in 2025, the Somalia government deliberately excludes the participation of Ethiopian troops in the mission. Besides, Mogadishu asked Ethiopian soldiers, who have been there due to various bilateral agreements with Ethiopia, to evacuate the country as soon as possible.
The Somali government, Brook elucidated, must reconsider its security strategy. Without collaboration with neighboring countries like Ethiopia, it risks losing control over many regions. "How could the Cairo government manage Somalia's peace? I see no likelihood of this," questioned the scholar.
Having paid a heavy price for Somalia's peace, Ethiopia, as to Brook, argues it should not be excluded from post-ATMIS peacekeeping efforts. The country expects support from the African Union and the United Nations Security Council in this regard.
Other factors playing into the existing situation
Ethiopia anger came after the Somalia's deliberate action taken to include external force to its dispute knowing what some foes mean to Ethiopia. Ethiopia and Egypt have been on fire due to Ethiopia's mega dam project on Blue Nile (Abbay River). With such grudge the two country experience for years, having Egypt in Ethiopia's backyard could make things even harder to resolve. The only thing Ethiopia can do is defending its national interest and territorial sovereignty with all cost.
Zahid Zedan, An analyst specializing in Nile River affairs and Ethio-Egypt relations, observed the two nations' issue in two perspectives, Egypt inclusion in Somalia's issue and the Abbay Dam. Zahid noted that while Somalia has the right to enter bilateral military agreements, including with Egypt, such agreements could pose a threat to Ethiopia. He stressed that Ethiopia must closely monitor these developments and be prepared to protect its interests.
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"The relative stability in Somalia is due to Ethiopia's efforts. Ethiopian troops have protected Somali government institutions and offices. Egypt cannot replicate that role; their objectives differ," Zahid explained. Egypt's dissatisfaction with Ethiopia's ambitions, such as access to the sea and its stance on Nile River politics, could lead to a partnership between Egypt and Somalia that undermines Ethiopia and the region rather than ensuring Somalia's peace.
Ethiopia views this shift in alliances as a direct threat to its national interests and a potential destabilizing factor that could reignite terrorism in the HoA. The situation remains volatile, with the potential to escalate into a broader regional crisis if not carefully managed, Zahid emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic engagement and conflict prevention.
All in all, no matter the issue could be, Ethiopia and Somalia have many in common to resolve their disputes by devoid third parties. Therefore, the two counterparts should work on finding the missing link. Somalia knows what Ethiopia sacrificed and this must not be replaced by any other party with hidden interest.
