Bulawayo, Zimbabwe — A new report says African cities will record rapid urbanization in the next decade, creating a mixed bag of socio-economic opportunities and challenges for the continent.
This development is projected to result in wealthier consumer markets, better connected and more sophisticated commercial hubs, and larger bases for industrial production.
The Economist Intelligence Unit's African Cities 2035 report says the continent is expected to record one of the fastest rates of population growth worldwide, with Africa's largest cities registering increased rural-to-urban migration.
Researchers, however, warn that this rapid urbanization will result in overcrowding, informal settlements, high unemployment, poor public services, stretched utility services and exposure to climate change.
"Africa has and will continue to have the fastest rate of urbanization of the world's major regions through 2035. Africa's urban population will rise from about 650 million in 2023 to almost 1 billion in 2035," the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) says in a report released last month.
African cities are already battling demand for urban housing, triggering a burst of informal settlements from Cape to Cairo at a time the continent's governments are lagging behind in commitments such as housing for all by the year 2030.
UN-HABITAT estimates that over half of Africa's urban population lives in slums, and this number is projected to increase from the current 400 million to 1.3 billion people by 2050.
"We expect rapid urbanization across Africa to help to create more dynamic and wealthier consumer markets, better connected and more sophisticated commercial and distribution hubs, and larger bases for industrial production and import-export operations," the EIU report says.
Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional leaders at their recent summit in Harare, Zimbabwe's capital, noted that innovation and industrialization will unlock the continent's economic growth, and the Economist Intelligence Unit warns that this demands urgent attention if the continent is to derive any dividend from the rapid urbanization.
"Overcrowding, informal settlements, high unemployment, poor public services, stretched utility services and exposure to climate change are just some of the major challenges that city planners will have to grapple with in their drive for sustainable urban economic growth in the next decade," says the EIU report released last month.
According to some experts, the continent needs to act quickly to stop urban sprawl-related deterioration.
"African governments need to firstly use evidence from population projections to anticipate this demand in housing, schools, waste disposal, water and transport," said Nyovani Madise, President of the Union for African Population Studies, a member of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
"African governments should invest in rural development programmes so that young people are able to find economic activities in their rural homes so that there is less migration into cities in search of livelihoods," Madise told IPS.
The Economist Intelligence Unit projects an addition of megacities with a population of more than 10 million residents, while 17 more cities will have a population of more than 5 million.
A further 100 will have populations in excess of 1 million inhabitants, the EIU says.
"The emergence of new urban heavyweights and megacities, the rapid expansion of city clusters and the rising importance of megalopolises will be a major feature of Africa's demographic and economic future," said Pat Thacker, the report's lead author.
The urgency of climate change is also captured in the report, flagging it as a "major concern for Africa's largest cities."
"Many (African large cities) are in low-lying coastal areas that expose them to rising sea levels and storm surges. These climate risks will weigh heavily on the future dynamism and prosperity of African cities, especially as national preparedness and climate resilience are weak," Thacker said.
However, Madise warns that inadequate planning by African countries will have adverse consequences for millions of residents across the continent.
"African governments should also plan for climate mitigation measures as their populations grow because population growth, coupled with growth of economies, especially through industrialization, will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in Africa," said Madise.
"Urban development is often accompanied by industrialization, which requires high energy, water, and good transport systems. Cities must have adequate urban policies to ensure that energy expansion is compatible with national and global targets for climate change," Madise told IPS.
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However, amid those challenges, African countries are being urged to look inward for solutions such accelerated industrialisation.
"It is not simply a question of convenience. It is a matter of absolute necessity," said Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
"We have no choice but to look inward for homegrown solutions, including domestic resource mobilization and innovative financing to sustain our development," Gatete told IPS.
As the EUI observes, "Africa's larger cities expand both geographically and demographically," and this will also have an impact on economic performance.
But as the continent struggles to tame poverty levels, the EUI says there are small pockets of economic optimism where skilled and better educated workers will emerge, raising hope that the continent's urbanization is not all gloom.
IPS UN Bureau Report
