This month's UN Summit of the Future should confront the reality that Africa will likely miss most Sustainable Development Goal targets.
As the world prepares for this month's United Nations (UN) Summit of the Future, Africa faces a critical juncture. With just six years until the 2030 deadline, the continent probably won't meet the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Should it double down and accelerate efforts, try to extend the timeframe, or abandon certain goals altogether and channel resources towards the priorities of individual countries?
Out of the 144 measurable SDG targets, Africa is on track to achieve only 10 by 2030. As many as 106 targets require accelerated action, while 28 are moving in the wrong direction.
Africa has made progress on SDG 9 (specifically mobile network coverage) and SDG 4 (specifically school enrolment). But its current trajectory projects that over 23% of people in Africa will still live in absolute poverty by 2030 (SDG 1).
By that time, the rest of the world would probably have dipped below the desired 3% mark. Only Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritius, Gabon, Egypt, Seychelles and Morocco have achieved the 3% target, with Libya and Cabo Verde on track for 2030.
Countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Senegal and Equatorial Guinea can meet the goal if action is accelerated. However, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Central African Republic, Burundi, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are likely to have more than 50% of their population still living in absolute poverty in 2030 - with rates in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi above 70%.
This challenge isn't unique to Africa. Globally, only 15% of the SDGs are on track, with nearly half off course. However, Africa's performance is particularly concerning and raises valid questions about the viability of the 2030 deadline.
The SDGs succeeded the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which tackled pressing global challenges between 2000 and 2015. The MDGs helped halve extreme poverty and improve access to clean drinking water (mainly in China and India). But they also faced significant shortcomings, particularly in maternal health and environmental sustainability.
The SDGs were designed to address these gaps, expanding to include reducing inequality, combatting climate change and promoting sustainable economic growth. Yet, without a major shift in strategy, the SDGs globally will also fall short of their ambitious aims.
In Africa, there have been calls for accelerated action. In July, Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo called for a significant push to access the resources and political will required to meet SDG goals. He highlighted reforms that could unlock the estimated US$1.3 trillion needed annually, such as stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, public-private partnerships and innovative financial mechanisms like blended finance.
However, the challenges to acceleration are formidable. The remaining SDG gaps are immense, particularly for low- and middle-income countries, where insufficient financing is exacerbated by debt burdens, reduced fiscal space and limited access to global financial markets. It's also unclear whether the political will exists to push through necessary reforms.
The African Futures and Innovation (AFI) team at the Institute for Security Studies has modelled various reforms and strategies aimed at achieving meaningful and sustainable development in Africa. Even its most optimistic forecast, the Combined scenario - which assumes significant improvements in governance, financial reforms, integrated trade and domestic manufacturing - shows that many 2030 SDG targets remain unattainable.
So extending the deadline seems like a pragmatic option. A more flexible SDG timeline that aligns with Africa's Agenda 2063 and includes intermediate targets could offer a longer-term vision more in tune with the continent's realities. The extension could enhance the SDGs' relevance and impact by integrating regional goals tailored to Africa's diversity.
However, an extension risks undermining global development efforts. It could dilute the urgency to tackle pressing challenges and lead to complacency. This may worsen inequalities, leaving vulnerable populations further behind. Moreover, postponing critical climate actions could cause irreversible environmental damage, eroding trust in global commitments and setting a troubling precedent.
Some SDGs that don't fully align with Africa's development trajectories may need to be reconsidered. Africa's deep-rooted structural problems, such as economic dependence on a narrow range of exports, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to essential services make certain goals unattainable. In such cases, SDGs should be redefined (or even abandoned) to allow African countries to focus on attainable, country-specific priorities.
This would however run the risk of fragmenting global efforts and undermining momentum against poverty, inequality and climate change. An Africa-specific approach is needed that accelerates progress where feasible, extends deadlines where necessary, and abandons or redefines SDG goals that are clearly unattainable.
For instance, focusing on sectors where Africa holds a strategic advantage, such as renewable energy and digital innovation, could lead to significant socio-economic benefits.
AFI projections suggest that rapid development may require Africa to depend on natural gas as a temporary energy solution in addition to renewables and nuclear, until alternative sources become more viable. Strictly applying the UN Environment Programme's fossil fuel reduction guidelines across Africa could lead to an energy shortfall that hinders growth.
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Efforts to boost local processing of extracted minerals are expected to elevate carbon emissions in the short term, complicating Africa's climate commitments. So, while progress in these sectors could spur economic growth, alleviate poverty, expand electricity access, create jobs and promote development, these advantages must be balanced against the environmental impacts and implications for global climate objectives.
That means the international community may need to intensify its climate mitigation efforts to allow Africa flexibility in achieving rapid growth. This could include providing financial and technical support for clean technologies, facilitating knowledge transfer and enhancing global cooperation on climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
At the Summit of the Future, leaders must confront the critical choices that will shape Africa's future. Failure to make these difficult but necessary trade-offs risks entrenching the same fragmented, inconsistent approaches that hindered progress before.
This article was first
Adivhaho Ramaite, Research Officer, Executive Director's office, ISS Pretoria
Alize le Roux, Senior Researcher, African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria
