Dabanga Sudan — In an interview with Radio Dabanga, Aicha el Basri, a Moroccan author and journalist with the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) and former spokeswoman for the African Union and the United Nations Mission in Darfur, expressed her concerns about the ongoing crisis in Sudan.
According to el Basri, the core issue extends beyond halting violence, with the real challenge being the establishment of a functional state, a problem that many Arab nations are grappling with.
"The problem in Sudan, as in the rest of the Arab world, is the failure of post-independence nations to build a national state," el Basri remarked. "There is no state based on citizenship, one that respects the multiplicity of ethnicities, religions, and cultures.
A state based on the sovereignty of the rule of law and civil governance, this is the project facing many countries in the region, including Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. The result has been a failure to construct a modern national state."
UN investigations
The United Nations fact-finding mission recently reported large-scale violations by both sides of the conflict in Sudan, describing these actions as war crimes and crimes against humanity. It recommended deploying an independent peacekeeping force to protect civilians, a suggestion el Basri criticised as "unrealistic."
She explained that Sudan's government has a history of negative relations with both the UN and international peacekeeping missions, dating back to its dealings with the African Union's peacekeeping force in Darfur.
"The Sudanese government has never been accepting of an international force, and it received UNAMID (the UN-African Union Mission in Darfur) under immense pressure," she said. El Basri further noted that the Sudanese government's current stance mirrors this resistance, pointing to the recent expulsion of the UN political mission, UNITAMS.
Challenges to peacekeeping
El Basri also highlighted the limitations of peacekeeping forces, referencing a 2014 internal UN report that revealed peacekeepers failed to act in 80 per cent of cases involving civilian attacks.
She added that the current UN leadership favours political missions over military ones, citing a shift back to traditional peacekeeping principles, which only deploy forces after a peace agreement has been reached.
Given this, el Basri concluded that deploying peacekeepers in Sudan is implausible. "The Sudanese army rejects hosting these forces, making their deployment impossible," she stated.
Arms embargo
El Basri also addressed the recommendation to extend the arms embargo in Darfur, calling it "idealistic" and noting that it has been historically ineffective. She pointed to repeated violations of the embargo by UN Security Council members Russia and China, both of which have been documented supplying weapons to parties involved in the conflict.
On the issue of justice, the expert was equally sceptical. The report urged the Sudanese authorities to cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in extraditing individuals accused of war crimes, including former President Omar Al Bashir.
El Basri dismissed this as unrealistic, given that key military figures, including Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan, would be unlikely to surrender their colleagues or themselves to international justice.
"It's not serious," she said bluntly. "The Sudanese authorities won't cooperate under these circumstances, and the idea of handing over individuals like El Burhan, who once defended Omar Al Bashir, is inconceivable."
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'Brink of collapse'
El Basri warned that the Sudanese state is now on the verge of collapse. "The state cannot provide basic services, security, or even daily necessities. The fact-finding mission's recommendations seem detached from the reality on the ground," she said.
The collapse of state institutions, including the judiciary, raises doubts about the country's ability to implement justice or restore order.
Reflecting on the broader picture, el Basri called for the international community to refocus its efforts. "The priority should be on pressuring all parties to agree on state-building. Without this, Sudan will continue to disintegrate."
