More than two-thirds of citizens say people have to be careful when discussing politics.
Key findings
- Overwhelming majorities of Ugandans said they feel "somewhat free" or "completely free" to say what they want (83%), to join any political organisation (88%), and to vote for the person of their choice without being pressured (93%). o But more than two-thirds (68%) said people have to be careful about what they say about politics, a 21-percentage-point increase over the past two decades.
- Ahead of the 2021 election, half (51%) of citizens said they worried about becoming victims of electoral intimidation or violence. o Fears of intimidation or violence were highest in the Central region (60%) and among opposition supporters (56%) and those expressing no party affiliation (59%). o As of 2022, nearly half (47%) of respondents said they feared becoming victims of political intimidation and violence during elections, an 18-percentage-point increase compared to 2019.
- Three-fourths (76%) of survey participants said they expected violence to erupt after the announcement of the 2021 election results. But nearly the same proportion (73%) said they believed that security agents would likely prevent the violence from becoming widespread.
- Opposition party supporters or leaders are regarded as the most likely perpetrators of violence and intimidation during elections, cited by 41% of respondents, followed by ruling party supporters or leaders (29%).
- Six in 10 citizens (62%) said that competition among political parties "often" or "always" leads to violent conflict, and more than half (51%) said political parties or candidates frequently use violence.
During the 2021 national election, Uganda witnessed the highest level of election-related violence in its recent history. Protests erupted in many parts of the country after the arrest of presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, for allegedly flouting COVID-19 regulations (Gillian, 2021; Burke & Okiror, 2020). A crackdown by security forces resulted in dozens of people being killed, wounded, or arrested, while opposition candidates as well as their campaign teams were detained (Dahir, 2020; Atuhaire, 2020; Al Jazeera, 2020). In just two days in mid-November 2020, 54 deaths were recorded, mostly in the capital (Human Rights Watch, 2021). The events shook the country and unleashed a torrent of repression against opposition forces and the media.
Various solutions to the problem of electoral violence have been suggested and tried. In 2017, the Inter-Party Organization for Dialogue was established to foster and facilitate the mitigation and resolution of conflict between political parties in Parliament without resorting to undemocratic or violent means, but its future has been called into question (Independent, 2022). Some scholars suggest that voter education could help prevent electoral violence (Kayemba, Luttamaguzi, Kiberu, & Kibira, 2020). Since the 2021 election, civil society has been involved in attempting to resolve political violence. One example is Ugandans for Peace, an initiative that involves church leaders, youth representatives, opinion leaders, politicians, boda boda (motorcycle taxi) riders, and other stakeholders (Opio, 2024).
Although Uganda returned to a multiparty political dispensation in 2005, the political space has been extremely uneven. Critics say President Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement (NRM) has maintained its hegemony through control of various state levers, allowing increasingly arbitrary state attacks on opposition supporters, especially during national elections (Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2010; Human Rights Watch, 2021).
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In a special Afrobarometer survey ahead of Uganda's 2021 election, most citizens said they feel free to say what they want, to join any political organisation, and to vote without being pressured.
But a growing majority also said that people have to be cautious when discussing politics, and almost half expressed fear of election-related intimidation and violence.
Most Ugandans considered it likely that violence would erupt after the 2021 election results were announced, though they also thought security agents would prevent the violence from becoming widespread. Majorities said that competition among political parties often leads to violent conflict and that political parties and candidates frequently use violence.
Dorah Babirye Dorah Babirye is a monitoring and evaluation officer at Hatchile Consult Ltd.
