The protracted crisis in Cabo Delgado requires a triple nexus approach to climate change, conflict and humanitarian assistance.
Mozambique, like much of Southern Africa, faces increasing vulnerability to climate change. Frequent climate disasters like floods, the 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought and Tropical Storm Filipo, have severely disrupted agriculture-dependent communities.
In the northern Cabo Delgado province, the resultant crop failures, destruction of infrastructure and displacement of thousands of people combine with a violent insurgency to intensify acute food insecurity. Emergency assistance and humanitarian aid are needed urgently.
Economic factors have contributed to the situation. In Cabo Delgado, the discovery of the world's largest ruby fields and major natural gas reserves brought hope for economic growth. But it also spurred an armed insurgency by Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M) that has been active in northern Mozambique since 2017.
Besides targeting economic assets, the militants exploit local grievances, unemployment and poverty to gain support for their cause - creating a cycle of conflict and economic struggle. Vulnerable and marginalised groups have become the prime targets for recruitment by the insurgents.
This complex interplay of politics, ideology and economics requires a comprehensive response to both security concerns and socio-economic considerations.
On the security front, the government has been assisted by troops from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) since 2021. These efforts weakened the insurgents, but the threat remains and has been displaced to other parts of northern Mozambique as the terrorists adapt to their changed security environment. Although a strategy to prevent violent extremism and develop Cabo Delgado was initiated in 2022, it was never implemented.
Various international aid organisations have stepped in to provide much-needed humanitarian support. The International Committee of the Red Cross, International Organization for Migration, and United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Refugees provide emergency relief and livelihood support to displaced and host communities. CARE works with women and girls to address poverty, provide healthcare access, education and support during emergencies.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs delivers lifesaving assistance, including protection services, shelter, food aid, treatment for acute malnutrition and emergency obstetric care. The United States Agency for International Development addresses the immediate needs of storm-affected communities in central and southern Mozambique, including shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene. The Norwegian Refugee Council delivers humanitarian aid in the form of shelter, education, food security and legal assistance.
These efforts highlight the interconnection between development programmes, humanitarian action and the drive for peace and stability.
Globally, progress in human development has stalled or even reversed with more people living in conflict-affected areas, while crisis-driven humanitarian needs are expanding. Fragility and conflict are the direct drivers of humanitarian crises, and affected countries like Mozambique lag furthest behind in achieving sustainable development. Consequently, there is growing international consensus that humanitarian and development efforts must be anchored on the foundations of peace and human rights.
The 2016 World Humanitarian Summit facilitated support for the humanitarian-development-peace (or triple) nexus, intended to ensure collaboration between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding efforts in complex protracted crises. The triple nexus is a strategy to tackle the severe pressures on the international aid system, and promote better integration between development and humanitarian organisations.
| Triple nexus approachSource: ISS |
The triple nexus approach has been implemented in conflict-affected regions like the Sahel and Yemen. In the Sahel, ongoing instability fuelled by armed groups, ethnic violence, climate change and state fragility has left over 18 million people in need of assistance. Since 2012, international actors have tried to improve the coordination of humanitarian, development and peacebuilding activities to stabilise the region and build long-term resilience.
In Yemen, where civil war has led to millions facing food insecurity, this approach was applied in response to the intertwined political, economic and humanitarian emergencies, particularly after 2015 when the conflict intensified.
Despite its appeal, applying the triple nexus approach in practice has not been easy. A lack of coordination between actors, difficulties in maintaining neutrality while working with military forces, and funding constraints are key problems. In the Sahel, securitisation of aid and fragmented political control make it hard to integrate peacebuilding with humanitarian efforts. In Yemen, aid is often used and controlled by local actors, prolonging the conflict and making aid delivery a challenge.
Still, the triple nexus approach is gaining traction due to the global increase in humanitarian needs, shrinking resources, and the recognition that over 80% of humanitarian assistance is provided in complex conflict settings.
Stability demands that the root causes of crises be addressed. These are usually a combination of social and economic inequalities, poor governance, political marginalisation and environmental stressors. Together they create a cycle of vulnerability, long-term displacement and instability.
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This cycle can only be properly dealt with through integrated humanitarian, development and peace efforts. Stakeholders must find new ways to work across sectors to meet the growing demand for more connected and coordinated approaches to long-term crises.
Mozambique's government, along with international donors, the UN community, and governments in the region must prioritise peacebuilding as the core component of a triple nexus strategy. This means allocating more resources to support a root-cause approach.
SADC and international actors should develop a framework for dealing with the interconnected challenges of climate change, conflict and development. This will require improving the capacity of SADC's institutions to coordinate efforts and ensure that climate adaptation measures are fully implemented.
Conflict prevention and peacebuilding must be integrated into climate resilience programmes across the board. Humanitarian and development organisations should adopt conflict-sensitive and community peacebuilding approaches that address underlying grievances such as unemployment and displacement. In this way, stakeholders can reduce the risk of violence and build the conditions necessary for enduring stability.
Isel Ras, Consultant, ISS Pretoria
Dave Husy, Managing Director, Impact Pathways
