Over the past decades, heavy and more frequent rainfall and dry spells in southern Africa have caused loss and damage to agriculture, livestock, the energy sector, food security and nutrition.
Gender and migration scientist Gracsious Maviza and climate change specialist Siyaxola Gadu talked to The Conversation Africa about how this poses risks to stability and peace in the region.
What's the link between climate, peace and security?
There is no direct and linear relationship between climate risks and security. However, the changing climate intensifies socioeconomic problems. These include water scarcity, already precarious livelihoods and food insecurity, poverty, and weak governance. When the climate changes, and these problems get worse, this can create social tensions between and within communities.
Climate change-induced disasters threaten the livelihoods and well-being of communities. They can result in displacement, as seen in the current floods in west, central and north Africa, which have displaced 3.5 million people and killed 900.
These extreme weather disasters can also lead to competition and tensions related to resources such as food, land and water.
Read more: Armed conflict and climate change: how these two threats play out in Africa
In settings where conflict already exists, the effects of climate change can either aggravate or prolong it, making it more difficult to build and maintain peace. Conflict also gets in the way of communities organising and uniting to put in place their own strategies to adapt to climate change.
Conflict-affected settings are also more susceptible to climate-related instability. This is because most of the population relies on food, land and water systems that are dependent on the climate. For example, rural communities depend on rainfed agriculture for food and livelihoods.
We carried out research in Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Our findings suggest that the adverse effects of climate change on food, land and water systems are altering the dynamics of interaction in ways that will make it difficult to maintain communal harmony and peaceful relations.
How is southern Africa being affected?
Southern Africa is one of the regions most affected by climate variability and change. It has experienced increasingly intense cyclones, floods and droughts due to changing rainfall and temperature patterns. This has affected water availability and agriculture, leading to food insecurity. In turn, this has exacerbated tensions within and between communities, as well as amplifying grievances against local and national authorities.
Due to persistent droughts, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi recently officially declared states of emergency.
Our research found that in Zambia, persistent droughts pushed farmers from the southern province to the northern part of the country. The displaced farmers had farming practices that were different from those of the host communities, which caused anxiety and agitation.
In the northern part of Mozambique, some people who had lost their land and could no longer farm joined non-state armed groups as an alternative way to make a living. (When men and young people join these groups they gain protection, and access to aid and money from the leaders of the groups as appreciation of their loyalty and services.)
Climate variability and change are not the only sources of instability in the region. But, when combined with existing problems related to water and energy infrastructure, social and political institutions, and lack of resources for climate risk management and adaptation, climate change disasters increase the danger of conflict happening.
What's the link with migration and gender?
The gender, migration, climate, peace and security nexus, or the place where these all connect, is complex.
Gender is critical in shaping how individuals and communities experience and respond to disrupted livelihoods, scarce resources, a degraded environment, and forced migration and displacement. Women and men experience the impacts of climate change differently. Women are often responsible for water, food and energy supply within households, which are directly affected by climate change. This makes them frontline responders to the adverse effects of climate variability and extremes.
Women's workloads increase as these resources become scarcer. Women may be forced to travel longer distances to fetch water and firewood. They are less able to participate in other economic or educational activities.
Also, women may be disproportionately affected by violence and displacement during conflicts. Despite this, women are key agents in building resilience and peace. They often play crucial roles in conflict resolution, building united communities, and the management of natural resources.
Because scarce resources result in the loss of livelihoods, men are more likely to migrate long distances in search of work to provide for their families. In families that are displaced by climate disasters, the power dynamics change. It's hard for men to maintain their roles as breadwinner. This challenges masculinities and can lead to gender-based violence.
What should the policy responses be?
Policies can provide frameworks that guide actions, allocate resources and establish standards for mitigating climate-related risks to peace and security.
Effective policies should help build resilience, reduce vulnerabilities, and promote sustainable development. For example, policies must aim to improve disaster preparedness and promote regional cooperation.
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Read more: Climate may not directly drive conflict but it's critical for building peace
Currently, climate-related policies in most southern African countries are silent on peace and security. This is mainly because it's a new concept and has yet to be endorsed as such in southern Africa.
Nevertheless, there is some progress. For example, the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Team at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, part of a global network of organisations concerned with food security, recently collaborated with the African Center for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes and the Zambian Ministry of Green Economy and Environment on a climate, peace and security perspective for its National Green Growth Strategy.
Another solution is for governments to recognise available local-level solutions. These include locally informed conservation agriculture and natural resources management. Community voices are important to listen to if governments want to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Giulia Caroli co-authored the research that this article is based on.
Gracsious Maviza, Gender and Migration Scientist; Regional Lead for Southern Africa in the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Team, CGIAR System Organization
Siyaxola Gadu, Visiting Researcher, CGIAR System Organization
