The ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over Nile River utilization remains unresolved, with both nations accusing each other of obstructing progress. At the recent 79th United Nations General Assembly, Ethiopia raised concerns about Egypt's failure to adhere to the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), which is set to transition into the Nile Basin Commission (NBC). This impasse raises critical questions about the implications if Egypt continues to resist this multi-member initiative.
Ethiopia has taken steps to deescalate tensions and seek a sustainable resolution, encouraging Egypt to join the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) on the Nile, which promotes equitable resource utilization among all riparian states. Ethiopian Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Yosef Kassaye, emphasized that Egypt has a "golden opportunity" to restore peaceful relations with Nile riparian states by ratifying the CFA.
Six riparian countries have now ratified the CFA, meeting the minimum requirement for the formation of the Nile River Commission. Political-Economic Analyst Lawrence Freeman commented on Egypt's escalating tensions, suggesting that it should reconsider its approach. He highlighted that regional economic development will be driven by Ethiopia, rather than ongoing militarization. Freeman noted a growing sense of statesmanship among regional leaders.
Egypt's representative at the UN accused Ethiopia of unilateral actions and a lack of consensus regarding Nile water use. In response, Ambassador Yosef stressed that the Abbay Dam is fostering regional integration through energy and trade, which Egypt fails to acknowledge. He criticized Egypt for seeking a colonial-era monopoly over Nile waters. "Egypt attempts to exert veto power over the water development efforts of countries that originate the Nile waters."
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Freeman cautioned that the ongoing disputes are rooted in outdated narratives, warning that unresolved conflicts could worsen regional poverty. He urged African and global leaders to exert pressure on those exacerbating the crisis, emphasizing that Egypt's militarization is a shortsighted policy if the intention is to compel Ethiopia to halt its Nile utilization.
Despite available diplomatic alternatives, increasing militarization, particularly from Egypt, complicates bilateral relations and regional stability. Freeman pointed out that the crisis in the Horn of Africa is largely driven by economic poverty, with Sudan's ongoing war being a prime example.
As regional tensions escalate, finding a solution appears increasingly challenging. Freeman argued that leverage from external powers like Europe or the United States is limited, and that a viable resolution will likely come from regional governments, especially those connected to the African Union. "Both Ethiopia and Egypt share borders with Sudan, making them the appropriate governments to intervene and seek a resolution," he noted.
With the CFA's accession finalized on August 14, 2024, it is set to enter into force on October 13, 2024, potentially marking a new chapter in Nile cooperation. This framework aims to promote equitable and sustainable management of the Nile River's resources among all riparian countries, enhancing collaboration on water sharing, energy production, and environmental protection.
