Mozambique will hold presidential and legislative elections this Wednesday, with the ruling Frelimo party expected to extend its 50-year grip on power. However, the party is contending with a prolonged Islamist insurgency in one of Africa's largest gas fields.
Nearly 17 million voters, in a country of about 31.2 million, are registered to participate in the upcoming elections to choose their next president, along with 250 members of parliament and provincial assemblies.
Daniel Chapo, the ruling party's candidate, is widely expected to succeed Filipe Nyusi as president of the southeastern African nation.
Frelimo, the socialist Mozambique Liberation Front, has governed Mozambique since gaining independence from Portugal in 1975. Though elections were first introduced in 1994, the party has consistently faced accusations from opponents and observers of electoral fraud, allegations it denies.
President Nyusi is stepping down after serving two terms.
Little hope for change
Chapo, a former radio announcer and law lecturer, is facing a stiff challenge from a charismatic newcomer: independent candidate Venancio Mondlane, 50, who quit Renamo in June after a leadership tussle.
The latter has captured the support of disenchanted youth and poses the biggest threat to Frelimo in years, political analysts say.
Mondlane told RFI he wants "a government based on values", "reform the State" and implement "fiscal decentralisation".
Renegotiation of contracts with mega-projects and "transparency" to end corruption are others of his key ideas.
He also poses a challenge to the official opposition party, Renamo, which was formerly a guerrilla movement waging a decades-long bush war against the government.
Facing them are two other candidates: Ossufo Momade, 63, candidate of the historic opposition party, Renamo, and Lutero Simango, who represents the MDM, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique, the third political force in the country.
Yet, "nothing is going to change," said Domingos Do Rosario, a political science lecturer at Maputo's Eduardo Mondlane University, pointing to weak institutions and rife political bargaining.
"The integrity of the electoral process is a serious problem," said researcher Borges Nhamirre from Pretoria's Institute for Security Studies.
Chapo, the likely future president, 47, has little significant political or government experience, the expert added. "He's unknown," Nhamirre said.
Challenges
The country is emerging from an economic crisis caused in part by a hidden debt scandal.
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A big issue in this election is, however, the risk of vote-rigging, as alleged in previous elections.
Some observers even wonder if the party in power would respect the results if it loses, party officials having in the past ignored or denied claims of fraud.
In the 2019 election however, observers from the European Union reported cases of intimidation, ballot-box stuffing, intentional invalidation of opposition votes and altering of polling station results.
Mondlane warned that the people "will rise up" if there is fraud.
Another challenge faced by Mozambique is violence from Islamist groups.
More than 1,000 survivors of Mozambique hardline Islamist attack reach safety
Chapo vowed to fight the Islamist insurgency in the north that has halted multi-billion dollar gas projects and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
"These areas where there is terrorism are an attack on all Mozambicans," Chapo told a cheering rally of supporters in Maputo on Sunday, vowing to defend Mozambique's "peace, sovereignty and territorial integrity."
To stop the insurgency, devastating the Cabo Delgado province in particular, in the north of the country, Mondlane wants to correct "historical errors" such as "the ostracism to which the province was subjected", and to open a dialogue in stages.
Fresh clashes in Mozambique's restive Cabo Delgado province
The electoral commission will announce the results after 15 days before being validated by the Constitutional Council.
(with newswires)
