Two years into his presidency, William Ruto faces a critical political test: appointing a new Deputy President, a move that could shape his legacy during the remainder of his first term in office.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is currently battling an impeachment motion, with the Senate set to vote on Thursday. The motion, passed by 282 members of the National Assembly, marks a significant downturn in Gachagua's political fortunes.
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As Gachagua fights for his survival, Ruto is confronted with the decision of who will likely succeed him, with intense lobbying underway to fill the slot. Many anticipate that by next Friday, Gachagua could be out of office.
The choice of a successor is a delicate one for Ruto, especially given the history surrounding Gachagua's initial selection during the heated 2022 general election campaign.
Ruto's pick of Gachagua went against the preferences of majority of Mount Kenya legislators, who had favored then-Tharaka Nithi Senator Kithure Kindiki, now serving as Interior Cabinet Secretary, a powerful position in the government.
At the time, Ruto justified his choice of Gachagua despite opposition. However, with the impeachment proceedings casting doubt on that decision, the President is now under pressure not to repeat the same mistake.
Top Contenders
Talks have been rife that the Deputy President position will remain within the Mount Kenya region, a key political base for Ruto. The region is particularly sensitive following the impeachment of Gachagua, and the President is keen to avoid further disgruntlement.
Top contenders from Mount Kenya include Kindiki, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, and Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata. Outside the region, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi from the western region is also taunted as one of the contenders.
Insiders from the ruling coalition suggest that if the position is retained within Mount Kenya West, where Gachagua hails from, counties like Murang'a and Kirinyaga could be favored.
However, Mount Kenya East, which has long felt sidelined in national politics, may also push for representation. This part of the region has consistently supported leaders from Mount Kenya West, despite never having one of their own ascend to the top positions in government.
Kindiki's projection
Kindiki, who hails from Mount Kenya East, has been regarded as a key spokesperson for the region. His strong working relationship with Ruto--dating back to their days together during the International Criminal Court trials--further strengthens his position.
Recent opinion polls rank Kindiki as a frontrunner for the Deputy President post, largely due to his non-confrontational leadership style, which contrasts with Gachagua's abrasive approach.
"This decision ultimately rests with the President. Although high-level meetings have been happening and Kindiki's name is frequently mentioned, his track record, delivery, and broad acceptance in Mount Kenya and beyond certainly boost his chances," said a key ally of Ruto.
The downside of Kindiki as a replacement for the slot is the narrative that Mt Kenya East wields low numbers compared to the West hence the notion that the leader for Central Kenya should hail from the latter.
"President Ruto has previously shown confidence in his decision, so it doesn't matter whom he chooses. He may not want anyone to challenge him and behave like Gachagua, like a co-president," Political analyst and history professor Macharia Munene opines
However, some argue that Kindiki's candidacy might be weakened by the notion that Mount Kenya East, with its smaller population, shouldn't produce a leader for the Central Kenya bloc, which has historically been dominated by leaders from Mount Kenya West.
In the last gazetted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission notice, data reveal that Mt Kenya currently has 5.9 million voters. Of these, Mt Kenya West accounts for 4.6 million voters, while Mt Kenya East has 1.3 million.
Governor Waiguru has been fronted as a favorable candidate hailing from Mount Kenya region and previously President Ruto has dangled with the idea of having a female deputy President.
"Ruto might think it wise to a point a leader from the Mountain to silence the noise. We have the likes of Waiguru who are eager and Ruto has previously preferred a woman for the slot. Let's make no mistake, it's whom Ruto wants that will take up the slot," said Professor Munene.
Waiguru's candidacy is significant, though critics argue that she may lack the political clout to fully mobilize the region in the lead-up to the 2027 election.
"Waiguru would want to lose her gubernatorial seat for an appointed seat. I know she has done her Maths and it's a direction she would want to take," Political analyst Fanya Mambo Kinuthia argues.
Mudavadi's input
Mudavadi, a seasoned politician who previously served as Vice President, is also a serious contender.
His experience in Cabinet, particularly during the Moi era, where he played a crucial role in liberalizing key sectors like finance and agriculture, strengthens his appeal.
"Tribal interest and sensitivities must now take a back seat. Mudavadi stands heads and shoulder above names so proposed. He has the mental the infrastructure and requisite skills to step in that role. When you put all suggested names in the weighing scale and tick the boxes, he stands tops," Political Risk analyst Dismas Mokua said.
Mokua added that Ruto's selection will significantly impact Kenya's political stability, emphasizing that the next Deputy President must be capable of handling both national and international affairs.
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"The DP nominee must not be limited to geographical factors. DP talent is available across the Nation. The President must not tie himself to Mount Kenya. At the end day he is the man that has got the yam and the knife," he argued.
-Mt Kenya Influence-
Despite calls for the Deputy President role to be allocated to other regions, the Mount Kenya and North Rift regions were instrumental in Ruto's 2022 victory.
Even as some quarters portend that the DP seat should be issued to other regions, the 10 Mt Kenya counties and the seven from the North Rift collectively handed Ruto his victory handing him 4.5 million votes, which translated to 63 percent of his total votes.
Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang'a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Nakuru collectively gave Ruto nearly three million votes.
With 2,938, 309 votes from the 10 Mt Kenya counties, Ruto topped up with 1.6 million votes from seven North Rift counties to scale to the topmost political seat.
As he contemplates his next move, Ruto is keenly aware that the support of these regions will be essential for his political future.
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