Africa takes the reins for the first time in 20 years, but will the new secretary-general adopt a more assertive stance?
The Commonwealth holds its biennial summit - the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) - in Samoa next week, amid the perennial soul-searching about its relevance in 2024.
It is a significant CHOGM as the 56 member states will elect a new secretary-general to succeed Britain's Patricia Scotland. And it is Africa's turn to get the secretary-generalship - for the first time in 20 years.
Three African candidates are competing for the job: Ghana's Foreign Minister Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey; Lesotho's former trade and industry minister Joshua Phoho Setipa; and Gambia's Foreign Minister Mamadou Tangara.
At their Chatham House debate in London last month, Anne Gallagher, Director-General of the Commonwealth Foundation, said: 'For some, it's tempting to see the Commonwealth as a relic, a fading echo of a complicated and troubled past.'
But Gallagher said CHOGM and the election of a new secretary-general offered the opportunity to prove the sceptics wrong. She said the 2.7 billion people in the Commonwealth wanted the next leader to shape the body into a powerful force for justice, dignity and prosperity for all. She stressed that the Commonwealth was a values-based organisation founded on democracy, human rights and good governance.
Whether it has upheld those values is a moot point. The body's vigour in fighting South Africa's apartheid and Rhodesia's minority white rule in the 1970s and 1980s are invariably cited as examples of upholding values.
But since then, the Commonwealth's performance has been ambivalent. Its suspension of Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha for executing Ken Saro-wiwa and other dissidents in 1995 and sanctions against Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe were both divisive. Such moves often pitted members from the global North against those of the South.
Those clashes seemed to usher in a period of very low-key Commonwealth leadership. Will that change?
In the Chatham House debate, the three African candidates did not inspire much confidence in a more assertive Commonwealth. They indicated that if elected, they would pursue quiet diplomacy concerning member states' abuses of Commonwealth's values.
Botchwey said she believed the secretary-general's role was to work behind the scenes to resolve breaches of democracy and other values. If that fails, the issue should be referred to the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) for possible action, including sanctions. CMAG would do the public speaking out, she said.
CMAG reported at its meeting in September on progress in coaxing Gabon back to democracy after its 2023 coup. It also supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member state Guyana, which has been threatened by neighbouring Venezuela's blatant claim to some of Guyana's territory.
The Gabon saga, though, illustrates the consequences of the Commonwealth's ambivalence about its values. It admitted Gabon and Togo - two former French colonies - in 2022, as part of an effort apparently to break the perception that it's just a club of former British colonies. Yet neither Gabon nor Togo was an exemplary democracy.
Historically, the Commonwealth's Northern developed states have been more concerned about democracy and human rights than its Southern developing states. And the latter have put more emphasis on the values of economic equality and development than their counterparts.
In a recent essay for Chatham House, 'Funmi Olonisakin, Professor at the African Leadership Centre, King's College, London said an African secretary-general could revive the Commonwealth's relevance. She said it could mobilise Africa's collective agency and emphasise its peace, development and trade agenda. Hitherto, the Commonwealth had failed to 'give voice to the Global South and the countries it most represents,' she said.
Olonisakin advised the new secretary-general to focus on three African priorities: peace efforts notably in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; boosting trade, especially through the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement; and tackling climate change by correcting the low investment in green energy.
Olonisakin made only passing reference to Africa's democratic deficits, noting: 'Some of the African Union's historic pledges - on rejecting unconstitutional government and the right to intervene in a member state in circumstances such as genocide or war crimes - now look unredeemable.'
Yet surely these democratic deficits fuel conflict, which in turn undermines economic prosperity and development. So defending the Commonwealth Charter's values of democracy, human rights, the rule of law and good governance should be fundamental to member states' success.
'How the Commonwealth handles Zimbabwe's reapplication at Samoa and afterwards will be a very important yardstick of adherence to the charter - or caving to collective African pressure. Ditto Gabon's current partial suspension,' says Sue Onslow, Visiting Professor in Political Economy at King's College, London.
It is not clear if Zimbabwe's application will be discussed in Samoa. That might depend on two reports, which haven't been made public. One is the final report of last year's Commonwealth election observation mission to Zimbabwe; the other is the 2022 readmission report. Since the matter might be divisive, Secretary-General Scotland could duck the issue.
It would represent a significant betrayal of the Commonwealth's values if Zimbabwe were readmitted, even though other members are not exactly shining lights of democracy either. Rwanda, Cameroon and Eswatini spring to mind - all rated by Freedom House as Not Free.
Based on the Chatham House debate, Botchwey seemed the best candidate, with eight years experience as a foreign minister and time chairing the Economic Community of West African States' Council of Ministers, when she negotiated transitions from unconstitutional power grabs to democracy.
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Setipa has been endorsed as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) candidate. But some observers in Lesotho question whether he should head an organisation committed to upholding democracy - having served in former prime minister Pakalitha Mosisili's government when it was accused of undermining democracy.
Onslow told ISS Today that the Commonwealth had registered some successes, such as pushing for loss and damage compensation for climate change. But whether or not it could revive its values depended on which candidate was chosen.
She agreed that Botchwey had the strongest credentials. 'But I don't expect the next SG to be the commissioner for human rights,' she said, referring to the 2012 Eminent Persons Group recommendation that the Commonwealth should have one.
'CMAG is a pale shadow of its late 1990s/early 2000s self. Under Patricia Scotland, it dwindled into more of an advisory forum than an oversight body with some teeth.'
On balance then, it seems doubtful that the Commonwealth under new leadership will respond to that perennial demand for a stronger defence of its values.
Peter Fabricius, Consultant, ISS Pretoria
