The ANC's position on Russia's war with Ukraine is costing South Africans - big time.

Listen to this article 7 min Listen to this article 7 min The ANC's tacit support for Vladimir Putin's illegal invasion (Pretoria twice abstained on voting on this issue at the UN, among other steps) is assumed, in its defence, to be part of a grander strategy aimed at changing the international order through the BRICS, of which Russia and South Africa are both members. This would, the argument goes, bring benefits, because the external order is currently skewed in the favour of the Global North - despite the obvious contradiction given that the very same global regime has brought massive economic upliftment over the past 30 years, in particular to BRICS members China and India.

The BRICS have become the totem around which South African foreign policy, its politicians and mandarins, dance and chant. Any possible costs of this policy direction are simply disregarded, even though it has probably added a premium of uncertainty for foreign investors in South Africa, at least those from the West.

Investment has stagnated if you exclude the 2021 spike which reflected the cross-border transaction involving Prosus' acquisition of about 45% of Naspers.

This reasoning could be contested. The upside is greater, BRICS adherents...