The IS which lost ground in most parts of the world seems to search for a safe haven in the Horn of Africa searching for a niche in Somalia. On yet another development, the Federal Government of Somalia has invited foreign forces into the country. In a country where Al- Shabab and Al-Qaida are controlling quite a larger territory of the nation, it is no surprise that global terrorist groups and hegemonic forces are now focusing on Somalia. The entry of Egyptian hegemonic forces in Somalia based on Somalia's a smokescreen of attack on her sovergnnity by Ethiopia has grown to the extent that Al-Shabab has managed to attack targets in Mogadishu. Global terrorist forces are now clustering on the Horn exploiting the situation from weak governance and insecurity in Somalia.
Apart from the traditional powers that are competing for controlling the Red Sea route and outlet to the Indian Ocean, a consortium of terrorist forces and hegemonic and destabilizing pentagonal alliances who are in an alliance on the Horn are joining the conspiracy of chocking Ethiopia who has been managing the peace and stability of 60% of Somali territory and attempting to block her right to have access to the sea. The expansion of terrorism on the Horn is indeed an offshoot of terrorist expansion in the rest of the continent.
Various researches and data from several sources that document and report incidents of terrorist attacks and entrenchments across Arica including Global Terrorism Index 2022, shows at least three key trends in Africa. The first trend is the increasing surge in the incidents of terrorist attacks over the years. The second trend involves the equally troubling rise in fatalities from attacks. From a human security perspective, it is worth noting that much of the burden of the attacks and the fatalities is borne by civilians. The most recent figures show that these two trends are particularly true in the Sahel and the Central Africa regions. The third trend relates to the geographic expansion of the threat of terrorism on the continent. There is no longer a region of the continent free from the activities of groups identified as terrorists. This geographic expansion continues as more and more territories face the risk of becoming theatre of terrorist operations.
According to the 2022 Global Terrorism Index published in March 2022, five of the ten countries most affected by terrorism are from Africa. All except Somalia are from the Sahel/Lake Chad Basin region. Six of the eight countries in the Sahel are amongst the 10 most impacted countries for terrorism in Africa. Of these, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are the ones experiencing fast growing burden of terrorism in Africa today. According to the index, out of 20 countries most affected by terrorism in the world, eleven are also from Africa including the Horn.
The terrorist threat in Africa has been shaped by activities in two regions and led by two terrorist organizations, both affiliated to Al Qaeda, namely Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in North and West Africa, and Al-Shabaab in East Africa.'13 Boko Haram, while active in northeast Nigeria, was far from its later day infamy as the most lethal terrorist group in Africa. Over the past seven years, the geography of terrorism in Africa has completely changed.
Terrorism in the Horn of Africa is a major concern for regional security due to its geopolitical significance and ongoing conflicts. The Horn of Africa, which includes countries like Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and parts of Sudan, has been a hotspot for extremist activities and terror networks, including groups like Al-Shabaab and Islamic State affiliate
Weak and unstable governments as well as ethnic and religious conflicts and fragile state structures and lack of good governance create environments where extremist groups can flourish. Somalia's decades-long conflict has made it a center of terrorism, with Al-Shabaab controlling large areas.
The region's borders are often poorly monitored, allowing militants and arms to move freely between countries like Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, increasing the spread of terrorism.
Various foreign military bases and interventions, including those by the United States and other countries, have been established to counter terrorism, particularly targeting Al-Shabaab. However, this foreign presence also contributes to local anti-Western sentiments that extremist groups exploited which led to the mitosis of new terrorist groups
High unemployment, poverty, and lack of education in many Horn of Africa countries leave young people vulnerable to recruitment by terrorist organizations. Who give them false promises of employments overseas?
The region is rife with inter-clan and ethnic conflicts, which are often manipulated by terrorist groups to gain influence, especially in areas where governments have limited control.
A Somali-based militant group that has been responsible for major terror attacks in Somalia and Kenya. Al-Shabab has strong ties to Al-Qaeda and controls significant parts of Somalia.
Though less influential than Al-Shabaab, there are factions of the Islamic State that operate in parts of Somalia, competing for influence in the region.
A regional peacekeeping mission aimed at stabilizing Somalia and countering Al-Shabaab's influence. The U.S. conducts airstrikes and supports local governments and regional forces in combating terror groups.
Countries like Ethiopia have actively engaged in counter-terrorism operations to prevent the spillover of extremist activities from Somalia.
Terrorism in the Horn of Africa poses a significant threat to regional stability, economic development, and peace efforts. Collaborative regional and international efforts are critical for combating this menace.
Hegemony on the Horn of Africa as practiced by those who have always attempted to weaken Ethiopia is performed by a triangulation of military and political forces that are under the pay of political forces. The politics and diplomacy in peace keeping has now become congruent with the interests of some western powers who wish to use puppet regimes in peace keeping to once again asserting their political diktat by all means including military encirclement. Somalia has now become a melting point of terrorism further complicating the efforts of hegemonic powers who pose as peace keepers while in fact their actions are vividly leading to a total war which could destroy the statehood of country.
The quest for peace keeping on the Horn as expressed by Egypt is only a sugar coated manifestation of hegemony in the region. This will certainly have further implications not only for Ethiopia but for Egypt as well because Egyptian political forces that have lost ground due to the usurpation of state power by former military leaders will not sit on the fence but also try to exploit the situation for their own purpose. On the other hand, the Egyptian economy cannot buttress the hegemonic desires of the government and this is forcing the expansionists to opt for a second degree proxy war on Ethiopia by mobilizing and arming groups who wish to take power by force in Ethiopia.
It must be noted that hegemonic intervention by Egypt in countries like Libya and to a certain degree in Sudan, Mali and Niger has resulted in the destabilization in the entire Sahel region making the area a breeding ground of terrorist forces.
The political and diplomatic situation in the Horn of Africa is rapidly changing by days with interesting twists and turns. The hegemonic activities on the Horn of Africa are a new form of neo-colonialism which is openly being finance by global big pockets that wish to keep the region in their own sphere of influence.
Ethiopia's face of with Somalia cannot be punctuated only in terms of the issue of securing ports. Ethiopia is trying to establish an economic community of the countries of the Horn of Africa which has not been palatable to western powers who wish to keep the area in poverty by using food aid as an ivy treatment for crisis ridden economies in the region. They do not tolerate economic integration and mutual support among countries of the Horn of Africa and that is why they are ready to destabilize the region through their "trusted partner."
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The neo-colonial mentality induced Egyptian desire for hegemony not only targets Ethiopia's efforts to use her natural resources but also fragmenting the country by supporting armed groups who are being used as a Trojan Horse for the destabilization of the country.
The current emotion ridden stance by the Somali Government is putting it at loggerheads with the states that make up the federal government and a total crisis seems to be in the making.
What could the federal government do at this point in time? The author thinks that the Ethiopian government could handle the case in deeper patience and diplomatic ingenuity.
On the other hand, the government needs to debrief the public on what exactly is going on save the national security information that may not be disclosed for practical purposes.
Moreover, in a world with seems to be guided by the credo of might is right, Ethiopia needs to further develop her military power to deter any attempt to trample with the national interest of the country. Citizens and overseas particularly the youth need to support government efforts to settle internal disputes with dialogue and refrain from bad language and misinformation on the social media.
At this point in time, the government needs to ensure that all development programs in the country are being conducted based on the national plan. The people of Ethiopia need to effectively support the ENDF in all aspects because the army is shouldering greater responsibilities in striving to ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. The symbiotic alliance between terrorism and hegmonsim in the Horn of Africa will collapse over time.
BY SOLOMON DIBABA
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD THURSDAY 24 OCTOBER 2024
