A potential victory for former U.S. President Donald Trump in this election could leave African countries at a critical moment, as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire next year.
Renewal of the US-Africa trade pact, which allows duty-free, quota-free access for African exports to the US, may face significant hurdles under a Trump administration, given his previous demands for increased market access for U.S goods.
Trump, who has emphasised "reciprocity" in trade, has signaled that African countries would need to open their markets to more American goods in return for continued benefits under AGOA, a move that could flood the continent with cheap American goods.
This stance could disrupt the longstanding trade preferences, putting African nations in a precarious position as they seek to protect domestic industries while benefiting from AGOA's provisions.
In July 2018, Trump's administration suspended Rwanda's eligibility to export clothing duty-free to the US under AGOA after the East African nation imposed a ban on second-hand clothing imports.
Rwanda's decision was in line with a broader agreement adopted by the East African Community (EAC) in 2016, aimed at curbing used clothing imports by 2019 to support local textile manufacturing. However, the initiative faced strong opposition from the US used-clothing industry.
The Secondary Materials and Recycled Textiles Association (SMRTA), a US trade group, filed a petition with the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), arguing that the EAC's ban could cause "significant economic hardship" to the American used-clothing sector.
According to SMRTA, the restrictions would threaten approximately 40,000 US jobs and cut $124 million in exports.
In response, the Trump administration threatened to remove four East African countries--Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda--from AGOA.
This pressure led all but Rwanda to back out of the agreement, effectively stalling the EAC's unified push to bolster local clothing industries.
The stakes are high for nations relying on AGOA to drive exports, with nearly 39 African countries currently eligible for the pact's benefits.
If Trump secures a second term, the future of AGOA could hang in the balance, potentially affecting Africa's access to its most lucrative export market.
