We have seen seismic political changes in both South Africa and Botswana, some of which were projected, others that came as a surprise even to the then-incumbent and succeeding regimes.
We are however, failing to acknowledge the different political environments in these countries. Comrade Lucia Iipumbu, former youth leader and product of our movement, when addressing a rally in Omaruru said the candidate we fielded is the one, and we should thus be cautious not to compare apples with oranges.
In 2004, the BDP received 51.73% of the votes, compared to the opposition that received 42.68%, while the Swapo Party received 75.83%, and the opposition got 23.2%. In 2014, BDP received 46.45% and the opposition 42.48%, while Swapo Party received 80.01%, and the opposition 18.32%. The Swapo Party candidate scored the lowest in 2019 with 56.25% and the new kid on the block, Dr Itula, then an independent candidate, could only muster 29.37%, despite public dissatisfaction about the "Fishrot" scandal. In 2019, BDP received 52.65% and the opposition 45.41%, while the Swapo Party received 56.25%, and the opposition received 32.82%. Our decline came at a time we let down our guard, which the party has since started to address in earnest as the Swapo Party has always been a self-correcting, broad-based movement.
It is my considered opinion that the ruling party of Botswana was never a liberation movement stricto sensu, hence its inclusion in the liberation movements' club in recent years.
Masisi's reign threatened the fabric of the Botswana traditional political system, alienating stalwarts and treating the party as his fiefdom, and creating alternative centres of power that have to be taken into consideration.. He departed from the established precedents, and appealed more to neighbouring countries and global audiences rather than his domestic challenges and agenda. Given the Botswana system, Masisi became an accidental choice for president when the former vice-president retired on health grounds.
Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah progressed through the ranks, on the back of decades of engagement at senior leadership level, in a democratic manner.
Ramaphosa, a trade unionist like Chiluba, just like Masisi, unilaterally changed the script dealing with a former president and a populist par excellence. We knew from the moment Zuma was humiliated that the political scene in South Africa would change.
Both these candidates, real or perceived, had allegations of corruption levelled against them. Nandi-Ndaitwah does not have allegations against her, and has no intentions of interfering with state institutions, or using state institutions to silence critics.
Good students of politics would inform us that Swapo has always been different from the ANC. Swapo as a liberation movement was more organised and structured in exile than the ANC. South Africa's movement towards multi-party democracy was triggered by our political independence. Visitors from South Africa would admire our road infrastructure and our 24-hour electricity supply, despite the size of our economy.
On the other hand, the change in Zambia happened many decades ago, and at the time failed to spread beyond its borders. Zambia taught us that to vote in a Chiluba just for the sake of change is not beneficial to national interest.
The Swapo Party is ever-changing to meet the growing needs of our people. Our people continue to appreciate the seismic socio-political changes that the Swapo Party has facilitated since independence, even though they are not completely happy with how things have been.
It would be foolish and disingenuous of an analyst to say people are happy to have things continuing as they have been, as it would be equally foolish and disingenuous of an analyst to say the party that brought us independence did nothing.
The Swapo Party believes that change needs to be meaningful in people's lives, and the party has awakened to this. The party is preaching continuity regarding those things that are not broken, and change for those things that we acknowledge need a rethink.
The Swapo Party is ready to bring about major changes. The opposition parties on the other hand, are too incompetent and fragmented even in managing their own parties to be able to bring about national change, or to grasp the full extent of the issues at play.
You have leadership in other parties passing around fake and unverified news about the state of our country, creating the impression that they ought not to be trusted to sift through information to determine the best course for the country, if they are struggling to sift through the garbage heap of online disinformation.
As Comrade Ngurare, former youth leader and product of our movement recently opined, the presidential candidates of our opposition parties don't have much to offer the electorate of 2024. They are either politically infantile, or offer little substance past their tribal affiliations, and most of the time fragmented as the wind in Alaska.
I am not naïve in knowing that where political change has happened, it often happened suddenly with insufficient warning, like in Zambia and Malawi. But that is the only takeaway. In those instances, there was often a bankruptcy of ideas, but that cannot be said of Swapo Party, whose government has been at the global forefront of ideas around climate change, logistical pivoting for inter-Africa trade, and other progressive initiatives.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
The party will have to capitalise on what Ndumba Kamwanyah regards as the appeal of Nandi-Ndaitwah's candidacy to those frustrated with male-dominated leadership, and those young people wanting a more inclusive governance. Everybody feels safe with Nandi-Ndaitwah.
Taking a leaf from Comrade Nandi-Ndaitwah and Nahas Angula, my own friend, we should intensify our campaign on radio and television, engage more one-on-one, teach our people how to vote, project what we have achieved as a party, as well as our grasp of the problems that stand before us as a nation.
The Arab Spring only benefited Algeria, where it started. The rest are worse off than when change for change's sake happened. A Motswana academic when asked about the Botswana lessons for Namibia, stated that there are no lessons.
Herman Andimba Toivo Ya Toivo continues to teach us from his grave that we are Namibians, and not South Africans [or Batswana]. Our dream is not deferred, and we dare not kill a dream that is alive. Patria o Muerte.
*Joshua Razikua Kaumbi is a holder of a BA in Political Science and Sociology (Unam), LLB (Stellenbosch) and an admitted legal practitioner.
