Somalia's upcoming seat on the UN Security Council should allow it to shape international maritime security policies.
Signs of a potential Somali piracy resurgence have emerged in 2024, most recently with the European Union Naval Force Operation ATALANTA reporting a suspected pirate group off Somalia's coast. On 23 October, the operation's Maritime Security Centre - Horn of Africa issued an alert to ships, noting that 13 armed pirates had departed from Ceel Huur and Hobyo - traditional Somali piracy hubs.
Predictions of a resurgence have resurfaced regularly during the 2010s, often due to suspicious events. Although a full-scale return to the levels seen in 2008-12 (Chart 1) remains improbable, the growing number of successful attacks raises concerns about whether traditional counter-piracy measures are working.
Unlike previous years, when incidents were more sporadic, there has been a steady build-up of piracy activity since late 2023, with several attempted attacks and two confirmed hijackings of commercial vessels. The MV Ruen and MV Abdullah were the first vessels to be successfully captured by pirates since 2017 (Chart 2).
The last reported pirate activity in the region before the recent alert occurred on 7 June - a suspicious approach on the cargo ship Pacific Honor.
There are several factors behind the rise in attacks. The pattern suggests pirate groups have again developed sophisticated operational capacity. Also, the seasonal monsoon winds have dropped. The rough seas and high winds of the southwest monsoon from June to September make small-boat operations difficult. With the season subsiding until March next year, piracy could resurface.
The uptick is also linked to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which are pushing shipping routes south. This has increased vessel activity along Somalia's coast, creating opportunities for pirates to exploit maritime vulnerabilities.
With ships deviating from established routes, maritime security forces have been stretched thin as naval forces such as the United Kingdom and United States are redeployed in the Red Sea. This has created gaps that pirates can exploit.
These developments also highlight the growing roles of new partners, such as India and Türkiye, whose recent involvement underscores a shift towards diversified international responses to piracy in the Indian Ocean.
India has played an active role, particularly since the resurgence of Somali piracy. Its navy's presence adds a layer of deterrence against piracy and a robust response capacity. India was pivotal in rescuing hijacked vessels, such as the MV Ruen following a prolonged hostage situation in early 2024.
The country's naval operations are part of its broader interest in safeguarding its maritime trade routes and ensuring regional stability in the Indian Ocean - crucial for its economic and security interests. India's ongoing counter-piracy efforts complement international operations, including ATALANTA, by reinforcing patrols as pirates increasingly target ships in crucial shipping routes.
From 2008-22, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) issued annual resolutions authorising international naval forces to combat piracy in Somali waters. These included allowing foreign navies to operate in Somalia's territorial seas. The resolutions established the legal framework to pursue and detain pirates through operations such as ATALANTA and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Operation Ocean Shield.
By 2022, Somali piracy had significantly declined, prompting the UNSC to recognise the shift in responsibility for maritime security to Somalia and its neighbouring countries. Somalia had opposed extending the resolutions, seeing them as infringing on its sovereignty and feeling it had acquired sufficient capacity to secure its own territorial waters.
But current attacks far out into the High Seas may lead to fresh discussions on how best to support Somalia and the region in the absence of UNSC mandates.
The country's 2025-26 UNSC seat should allow it to directly shape international maritime security policy. Somalia should use its council position to advocate for sustainable maritime security and development, which is vital to addressing piracy. It should invite international stakeholders to participate in a holistic strategy that benefits Somali communities and global shipping interests.
But it could also face heightened pressure to do more about piracy, strengthen its coast guard capabilities, and build regional partnerships that deter pirates and address root causes.
If Somalia advocates for renewed international collaboration through advice and capacity building without reinstating UNSC resolutions, attention will likely shift towards Türkiye in 2025. This is due to Türkiye's deepening partnership with Somalia, formalised through a memorandum of understanding requiring substantial capacity building by Türkiye as a major maritime security provider.
Through a new maritime security and economic agreement, Türkiye will gain increased influence over crucial aspects of Somalia's maritime sector. This will include a 30% revenue share from Somalia's exclusive economic zone activities in exchange for supporting Somalia's transition through training, joint operations, information sharing and naval acquisitions.
The resurgence of Somali piracy is underscored by ongoing socio-economic problems throughout Somalia. Despite international efforts to curb piracy, local grievances continue to mount, particularly around illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing by foreign vessels and related environmental impacts.
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Many Somali fishers are left with depleted stocks and diminished livelihoods, increasing the appeal of piracy as an alternative source of income, and buoyed by a deep belief that pirates are fighting illegal fishing.
Addressing piracy sustainably requires a multifaceted approach that goes beyond military patrols and focuses on economic development, job creation and sustainable fisheries management in Somali waters. This reality should prompt serious reflection on the success of UNSC-mandated initiatives that have, since 2008, aimed to achieve these developmental goals.
India and Türkiye's expanding roles in the region highlight a growing recognition that a long-term solution must incorporate regional voices and invest in local capacity building. Collaborative initiatives to empower Somalia's coast guard and enforce local fisheries laws, combined with sustainable development projects, may prove more effective than military patrols in curbing piracy.
Somalia's impending role on the UNSC is an opportunity to advocate for these approaches. The country could influence international maritime policy to emphasise capacity building and sustainable solutions rather than solely relying on foreign military intervention.
Timothy Walker, Senior Researcher, Maritime, ISS Pretoria
